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A Market Risk Approach to Liquidity Risk and Financial Contagion

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Author Info
Dairo Estrada ()
Daniel Osorio ()

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Abstract

According to traditional literature, liquidity risk in individual banks can turn into a system-wide ¯nancial crisis when either interbank credit exposures or bank runs are present. This paper shows that this phenomenon can also arise when individual liquidity risk trans- forms into system-wide market risk (even in the absence of bank runs and interbank credit networks). This happens when banks try to sell some portion of its assets in order to overcome a liquidity shortage (individual liquidity risk). These sales depress the market price of assets if demand is not perfectly elastic. Given the fact that banks mark to market the asset book, the fall of market price reduces the value of assets of every bank in the system (system-wide market risk), leaving them less suited for future liquidity shortages and therefore more prone to bankruptcies. The paper rationalizes this idea through the simulation of a model that tries to capture the behavior of a liq- uidity manager that faces shocks on bank deposits and loans. The main results suggest that the extent of ¯nancial contagion depends crucially on the size of the market for assets.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 384.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:384

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Related research
Keywords: liquidity manager; liquidity risk; market risk; systemic risk; financial contagion; mark-to-market;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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  1. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2003. "Financial Fragility, Liquidity and Asset Prices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  2. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2002. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 8937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Isabel Schnabel & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity and Contagion: The Crisis of 1763," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(6), pages 929-968, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hasan, Iftekhar & Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr, 1994. "Bank Runs in the Free Banking Period," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(2), pages 271-88, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe18, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Steven C. Salop, 1979. "Monopolistic Competition with Outside Goods," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 141-156, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium Analysis, Banking and Financial Instability," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  10. C. H. Furfine, 1999. "Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion," BIS Working Papers 70, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  11. Rochet, Jean-Charles & Tirole, Jean, 1996. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 733-62, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Castiglionesi, Fabio, 2007. "Financial contagion and the role of the central bank," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 81-101, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 1997. "Microeconomics of Banking," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061937.
  14. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2003. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003fe13, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2004. "A Model to Analyse Financial Fragility: Applications," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe05, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Xavier Freixas & Bruno Parigi & Jean Charles Rochet, 1998. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Economics Working Papers 440, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Craig Furfine, 1999. "Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 313-328.
  18. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. giulia iori and Saqib Jafarey, 2001. "Interbank Lending, reserve requirements and systemic risk," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 63, Society for Computational Economics.
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