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Systemic risk and financial consolidation: are they related?

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  • Gianni De Nicolo
  • Myron L. Kwast
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    Abstract

    The creation of a number of very large and sometimes increasingly complex financial institutions, resulting in part from the on-going consolidation of the financial system, has raised concerns that the degree of systemic risk in the financial system may have increased. We argue that firm interdependencies, as measured by correlations of stock returns, provide an indicator of systemic risk potential. We analyze the dynamics of the stock return correlations of a sample of U.S. large and complex banking organizations (LCBOs) over 1988-1999, and find a significant positive trend in stock return correlations. In addition, we relate firms' return correlations to their consolidation activity. Consolidation at the sample LCBOs appears to have contributed to LCBOs interdependencies. However, consolidation elasticities of correlation exhibit substantial time variation, and likely declined in the latter part of the decade. Thus, factors other than consolidation have also been responsible for the upward trend in return correlations.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2001-33.

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    Date of creation: 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2001-33

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    Keywords: Risk ; Bank mergers;

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    References

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    1. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 0035, European Central Bank.
    2. anonymous, 1999. "Using subordinated debt as an instrument of market discipline," Staff Studies 172, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    4. Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson & Mico Loretan, 1997. "Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations," International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Malkiel, Burton & Campbell, John & Lettau, Martin & Xu, Yexiao, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Scholarly Articles 3128707, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:
    1. Acharya, Viral V & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2003. "Information Contagion and Inter-Bank Correlation in a Theory of Systemic Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2004. "Interbank exposures: an empirical examination of systemic risk in the Belgian banking system," Working Paper Research 43, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Hund, John E., 2005. "Estimating Systemic Risk in the International Financial System," MPRA Paper 6658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Italy," IMF Working Papers 07/26, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Andrew Kuritzkes & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Risk Measurement, Risk Management and Capital Adequacy in Financial Conglomerates," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-02, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Yunyong Thaicharoen & Rungporn Roengpitya & Jiranit Chaowalit & Songklod Rastapana, 2009. "Developing the Efficient and Resilient Financial System for Thailand: Lessons from the Crisis and Challenges Ahead," Working Papers 2009-04, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
    7. Jaap Bikker & Sandra Wesseling, 2003. "Intermediation,integration and internationalisation: a survey on banking in Europe," DNB Occasional Studies 103, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Schüler, Martin, 2002. "The threat of systemic risk in banking: evidence for Europe," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-21, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    9. Rungporn Roengpitya & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2010. "Measuring Systemic Risk And Financial Linkages In The Thai Banking System," Working Papers 2010-02, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.

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