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Bank Risk Strategies and Cyclical Variation in Bank Stock Returns

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Author Info
L. BAELE ()
R. VANDER VENNET ()
A. VAN LANDSCHOOT

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Abstract

This paper investigates whether the stock returns of banks with different risk profiles exhibit different risk factor sensitivities over the business cycle. More specifically, we investigate whether or not high levels of capital adequacy or functional diversification provide banks with a structural hedge against a deterioration in the prevailing credit market conditions. Based on recent imperfect capital market theories, we develop a number of theoretical arguments for the existence of asymmetries in systematic risk across various types of banks. We use a regime-switching model to test the theoretical hypotheses empirically on a sample of European listed banks. We find that bank stock returns are strongly asymmetric; both the sensitivity to shocks and the conditional volatility are higher during business cycle troughs. Better capitalized and functionally diversified banks are perceived by investors as being better protected against a deterioration in credit market conditions compared to their relatively less capitalized and more specialized competitors.

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Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 04/217.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2004
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Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:04/217

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. R. Vander Vennet & O. De Jonghe & L. Baele, 2004. "Bank risks and the business cycle," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/264, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  2. Olli Castrén & Trevor Fitzpatrick & Matthias Sydow, 2006. "What drives EU banks’ stock returns? Bank-level evidence using the dynamic dividend-discount model," Working Paper Series 677, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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