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Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view

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Author Info
Robert-Paul Berben (De Nederlandsche Bank)
W. Jos Jansen (De Nederlandsche Bank)

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Abstract

We investigate shifts in correlation patterns among international equity returns at the market level as well as the industry level. We develop a novel bivariate GARCH model for equity returns with a smoothly time- varying correlation and then derive a Lagrange Multiplier statistic to test the constant-correlation hypothesis directly. Applying the test to weekly data from Germany, Japan, the UK and the US in the period 1980- 2000, we find that correlations among the German, UK and US stock markets have doubled, whereas Japanese correlations have remained the same. Both dates of change and speeds of adjustment vary widely across countries and sectors.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0310001.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0310001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on pc; to print on HP, A4 page format; pages: 28 ; figures: included. Final version, forthcoming in Journal of International Money and Finance
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Related research
Keywords: stock market linkages; financial integration; smooth transition;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Griffin, John M. & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1998. "Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 351-373, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. W. Jos Jansen & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2003. "International Rent Sharing and Domestic Labour Markets: A Macroeconomic Analysis," MEB Series (discontinued) 2003-14, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2007. "Modelling Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with the Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0652, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Balázs Égert & Evžen Kocenda, 2007. "Time-Varying Comovements in Developed and Emerging European Stock Markets: Evidence from Intraday Data," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp861, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christos S. Savva & Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Business Cycle Synchronization of the Euro Area with the New and Negotiating Member Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 91, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2008. "Multivariate GARCH models," CREATES Research Papers 2008-06, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Marie Brière & Ariane Chapelle & Ariane Szafarz, 2008. "No contagion,only globalization and flight to quality," Working Papers CEB 08-018.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Juan A. Lafuente & Javier Ordoñez, 2007. "The Effect Of The Emu On Short And Long-Run Stock Market Dynamics: New Evidence On Financial Integration," Working Papers. Serie EC 2007-12, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  8. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2005. "Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Smooth Transitions in Conditional Correlations," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 577, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Robert-Paul Berben & W. Jos Jansen, 2005. "Bond Market and Stock Market Integration in Europe," DNB Working Papers 060, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Nakatani, Tomoaki & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2007. "Testing for Volatility Interactions in the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH Model," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 649, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 24 Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2008. "Comovements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and timevarying conditional correlations," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0805, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Dick van Dijk & Haris Munandar & Christian M. Hafner, 2005. "The Euro Introduction and Non-Euro Currencies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-044/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 08 Jun 2006. [Downloadable!]
  13. Bernd Kaltenhaeuser, 2003. "Country and sector-specific spillover effects in the euro area, the United States and Japan," Working Paper Series 286, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. W. Jos Jansen & Ad C.J. Stokman, 2004. "Foreign direct investment and international business cycle comovement," Working Paper Series 401, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. K. Minderhoud, 2006. "Systemic Risk in the Dutch Financial Sector," De Economist, Springer, vol. 154(2), pages 177-195, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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