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The New Economy and Global Stock Returns

Author

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  • Mr. Luis Catão
  • Mr. Robin Brooks

Abstract

This paper revisits the relative importance of global versus country-specific factors underlying stock returns. It constructs a new firm level data set covering emerging and developed markets and estimates a simple factor model, which breaks down stock returns into a global business cycle factor, global industry factors, country-specific factors and firm-level effects. The results indicate that the share of variation in stock returns explained by global industry factors has grown sharply since the mid-1990s, at the expense of country-specific factors. Foremost among the global factors is a “new economy” factor, which has become a key determinant of global stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Luis Catão & Mr. Robin Brooks, 2000. "The New Economy and Global Stock Returns," IMF Working Papers 2000/216, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/216
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lieven Baele & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2005. "Structural versus Temporary Drivers of Country and Industry Risk," International Finance 0511005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Paramita Mukherjee & Malabika Roy, 2016. "What Drives the Stock Market Return in India? An Exploration with Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 15(1), pages 119-145, April.
    3. Li Yang & Francis Tapon & Yiguo Sun, 2006. "International correlations across stock markets and industries: trends and patterns 1988-2002," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(16), pages 1171-1183.
    4. Kaltenhaeuser, Bernd, 2003. "Country and sector-specific spillover effects in the euro area, the United States and Japan," Working Paper Series 286, European Central Bank.
    5. Berben, Robert-Paul & Jansen, W. Jos, 2005. "Comovement in international equity markets: A sectoral view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 832-857, September.
    6. Shailesh Rastogi, 2013. "Long-term Association of Stock Markets of Different Nations: An Empirical Study," Vision, , vol. 17(4), pages 303-313, December.
    7. Flavin, Thomas J., 2004. "The effect of the Euro on country versus industry portfolio diversification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1137-1158.
    8. Hans-Joachim Voth, 2003. "Convertibility, currency controls and the cost of capital in Western Europe, 1950-1999," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 255-276.
    9. Geoffrey Ngene & Ann Nduati Mungai & Allen K. Lynch, 2018. "Long-Term Dependency Structure and Structural Breaks: Evidence from the U.S. Sector Returns and Volatility," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(02), pages 1-38, June.
    10. Mr. Piti Disyatat & Mr. Gaston Gelos, 2001. "The Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Mutual Funds," IMF Working Papers 2001/111, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Faias, José A. & Ferreira, Miguel A., 2017. "Does institutional ownership matter for international stock return comovement?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 64-83.
    12. Miguel Almeida Ferreira & Miguel Ângelo Ferreira, 2006. "The Importance of Industry and Country Effects in the EMU Equity Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(3), pages 341-373, June.
    13. Jeffery D Amato & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2001. "Is there a "Nasdaq effect" in emerging equity markets?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    14. Salehizadeh, Mehdi, 2003. "U.S. multinationals and the home bias puzzle: an empirical analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 303-318, December.
    15. Paramita Mukherjee, 2011. "An exploration on volatility across India and some developed and emerging equity markets," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 18(2), pages 79-103, December.
    16. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "Asian Flu or Wall Street Virus? Price and Volatility Spillovers of the Tech and Non-Tech Sectors in the United States and Asia," IMF Working Papers 2002/154, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Xing, Xuejing, 2004. "A note on the time-series relationship between market industry concentration and market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 105-115, April.
    18. Chan-Lau, Jorge A. & Ivaschenko, Iryna, 2003. "Asian Flu or Wall Street virus? Tech and non-tech spillovers in the United States and Asia," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 303-322, December.
    19. Mr. Luis Catão & Mr. Allan Timmermann, 2003. "Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns," IMF Working Papers 2003/052, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Kaltenhäuser, Bernd, 2002. "Return and volatility spillovers to industry returns: Does EMU play a role?," CFS Working Paper Series 2002/05, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    21. Rishma Vedd & Keji Chen & Nataliya Yassinski, 2014. "Country and Industry Factor Influence on Investment in Latin American Emerging Markets," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(3), pages 47-57.

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