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Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models

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  • Pereira, Pedro Luiz Valls

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to test whether or not there was evidence of contagion across the various financial crises that assailed some countries in the 1990s. Data on sovereign debt bonds for Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Argentina were used to implement the test. The contagion hypothesis is tested using multivariate volatility models. If there is any evidence of structural break in volatility that can be linked to financial crises, the contagion hypothesis will be confirmed. Results suggest that there is evidence in favor of the contagion hypothesis.

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Paper provided by Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 174.

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Date of creation: 26 Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:174

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