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Testando A Hipótese De Contágio A Partir De Modelos Multivariados De Volatilidade
[Testing the contagion hypotheses using multivariate volatility models]

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Author Info
Marçal, Emerson F.
Valls Pereira, Pedro L.

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Abstract

This aim of this paper is to test whether or not there was evidence of financial crises ‘contagion’. The sovereignty debt bonds data for Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Argentine were used to implement such test. The ‘contagion’ hypothesis is tested using multivariate volatility models. It’s considered evidence in favor of ‘contagion’ hypothesis if there is indication of structural instability that can be linked in any sense to one financial crisis. The result suggests that there is evidence in favor of ‘contagion’ hypothesis

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10356/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 10356.

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Date of creation: 08 Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10356

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Related research
Keywords: Contagion Multivariate Volatility Models

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-15, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  5. Tse, Y. K., 2000. "A test for constant correlations in a multivariate GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 107-127, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 177-97, August.
  8. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Shephard, Neil, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(2), pages 247-64, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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