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Estimating and Forecasting the Volatility of Brazilian Finance Series Using ARCH Models

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  • Issler, João Victor

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to present a comprehensive emprical analysis of the return and conditional variance of four Brazilian financial series using models of the ARCH class. Selected models are then compared regarding forecasting accuracy and goodness-of-fit statistics. To help understanding the empirical results, a self-contained theoretical discussion of ARCH models is also presented in such a way that it is useful for the applied researcher. Empirical results show that although all series share ARCH and are leptokurtic relative to the Normal, the return on the US$ has clearly regime switchlng and no asymmetry for the variance, the return on COCOA has no asymmetry, while the returns on the Cbond and Telebras have clear signs of asymmetry favoring the leverage effect. Regarding forecasting, the best model overall was the EGARCH(l,l) in its Gaussian version. Regarding goodness-of-fit statistics, the SWARCH model did well, followed closely by the Student-t GARCH(l,l).

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  • Issler, João Victor, 1999. "Estimating and Forecasting the Volatility of Brazilian Finance Series Using ARCH Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 19(1), May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:19:y:1999:i:1:a:2792
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    Cited by:

    1. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2008. "Testing the Hypothesis of Contagion Using Multivariate Volatility Models," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 28(2), November.
    2. Fajardo, José & Farias, Aquiles, 2004. "Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions and Brazilian Data," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 24(2), November.
    3. Fajardo, J. & Cajueiro, D. O., 2003. "Volatility Estimation and Option Pricing with Fractional Brownian Motion," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_53, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    4. Marçal, Emerson F. & Valls Pereira, Pedro L., 2008. "Testando A Hipótese De Contágio A Partir De Modelos Multivariados De Volatilidade [Testing the contagion hypotheses using multivariate volatility models]," MPRA Paper 10356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Douglas Gomes dos Santos & Flávio Augusto Ziegelmann, 2008. "Estimação de volatilidade em períodos de crise: Modelos aditivos semi-paramétricos versus modelos versus modelo Garch," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807201932370, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Barbachan, José Fajardo & Schuschny, Andrés Ricardo & Silva, André de Castro, 2001. "Lévy processes and the Brazilian market," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 21(2), November.

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