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Correlation Analysis of Financial Contagion: What One Should Know before Running a Test

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Author Info
Giancarlo Corsetti () (Università di Roma III, Yale University and CEPR)
Marcello Pericoli () (Banca d'Italia)
Massimo Sbracia () (Banca d'Italia)

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Abstract

This paper presents a general test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis – a test that can be interpreted as an extension of the normal correlation theorem. Contagion is defined as a structural break in the data generating process of rates of return. Using a factor model of returns, our theoretical framework nests leading contributions in the literature as special cases. We show that the tests proposed in the literature are conditional on a specific yet arbitrary assumption about the variance of country specific shocks. Using the Hong Kong stock market crisis in October 1997 as a representative case study, our results suggest that, for a number of pairs of country stock markets, the hypothesis of 'no contagion' can be rejected only if the variance of country specific shocks is set to levels that are not consistent with the evidence.

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Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 408.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_408_01

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Related research
Keywords: contagion; financial crisis; factor model; correlation analysis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - General
G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  1. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis," Textos para discussão 400, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  3. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul R, 1998. "Currency Crises, Sunspots and Markov-Switching Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1990, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatility, Capital Controls, and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 6756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Michelacci, Claudio & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2000. "(Fractional) beta convergence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-153, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Francesco Caramazza & Luca Antonio Ricci & Ranil Salgado, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Garry J. Schinasi & T. Todd Smith, 1999. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/136, International Monetary Fund.
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  1. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. gulielmo maria caporale & rea cipollini & nicola spagnolo, 2004. "Testing For Contagion: A Conditional Correlation Analysis," International Finance 0406003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dirk Baur & Renee Fry, 2006. "Endogenous Contagion - A Panel Data Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-09, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  4. R-P. Berben & W.J. Jansen, 2001. "Comovement in International Equity Markets: a Sectoral View," MEB Series (discontinued) 2001-11, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Monica Paiella, 2001. "Limited Financial Market Participation: A Transaction Cost-Based Explanation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 415, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Thomas Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "Shift versus traditional contagion in Asian markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp176, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  7. Diana Zhumabekova & Mardi Dungey, 2001. "Factor analysis of a model of stock market returns using simulation-based estimation techniques," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  8. Sarai Criado Nuevo, . "Some critics to the contagion correlation test," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Erika Corona & Sabrina Ecca & Michele Marchesi & Alessio Setzu, 2008. "The Interplay Between Two Stock Markets and a Related Foreign Exchange Market: A Simulation Approach," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 99-119, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. William N.Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K.Geert Rouwenhorst, 2003. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 98, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2002. "Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2001. "The Role of the Banking System in the International Transmission of Shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 409, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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