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The threat of systemic risk in banking: evidence for Europe

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  • Schüler, Martin
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    Abstract

    This paper attempts to answer the question whether the threat of systemic risk in banking exists only on a national or on a European level. Following De Nicolo and Kwast (2001), mean rolling-window correlations between bank stock returns are used as a measure for interdependencies among European banks, and hence for the systemic risk potential in Europe. National influences on stock returns are eliminated by estimating a return generating model. There is some evidence that interdependencies among European banks have increased over the past 15 years and that the potential of systemic risk has shifted from a national level to a European level. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 02-21.

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    Date of creation: 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:876

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    Related research

    Keywords: systemic risk; banking; contagion; Europe;

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    1. George Sheldon & Martin Maurer, 1998. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 134(IV), pages 685-704, December.
    2. Sweeney, Richard J & Warga, Arthur D, 1986. " The Pricing of Interest-Rate Risk: Evidence from the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 393-410, June.
    3. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2005. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-38, January.
    4. Flannery, Mark J & James, Christopher M, 1984. " The Effect of Interest Rate Changes on the Common Stock Returns of Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1141-53, September.
    5. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Randall J. Pozdena, 1991. "Is banking really prone to panics?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct11.
    7. Aharony, Joseph & Swary, Itzhak, 1983. "Contagion Effects of Bank Failures: Evidence from Capital Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(3), pages 305-22, July.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    9. Akhigbe, Aigbe & Madura, Jeff, 2001. "Why do contagion effects vary among bank failures?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 657-680, April.
    10. Aharony, Joseph & Saunders, Anthony & Swary, Ithzak, 1986. "The effects of a shift in monetary policy regime on the profitability and risk of commercial banks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 363-377, May.
    11. Swary, Itzhak, 1986. "Stock Market Reaction to Regulatory Action in the Continental Illinois Crisis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 451-73, July.
    12. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    13. C. H. Furfine, 1999. "Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion," BIS Working Papers 70, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Angelini, P. & Maresca, G. & Russo, D., 1996. "Systemic risk in the netting system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 853-868, June.
    15. Slovin, Myron B. & Sushka, Marie E. & Polonchek, John A., 1999. "An analysis of contagion and competitive effects at commercial banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 197-225, October.
    16. Marcel Canoy & Machiel van Dijk & Jan Lemmen & Ruud de Mooij & Jürgen Weigand, 2001. "Competition and stability in banking," CPB Document 15, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Stone, Bernell K., 1974. "Systematic Interest-Rate Risk in a Two-Index Model of Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(05), pages 709-721, November.
    18. Jongmoo Jay Choi & Elyas Elyasiani, 1996. "Derivative Exposure and the Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Risks of U.S. Banks," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-53, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    19. A. W. Coats, 1995. "Comment," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 157-161, Supplemen.
    20. Gianni De Nicolo & Myron L. Kwast, 2001. "Systemic risk and financial consolidation: are they related?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Gianni De Nicoló & M. G. Zephirin & Philip F. Bartholomew & Jahanara Zaman, 2003. "Bank Consolidation, Internationalization and Conglomeration," IMF Working Papers 03/158, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Schüler, Martin, 2003. "How Do Banking Supervisors Deal with Europe-wide Systemic Risk?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-03, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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