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Fundamentals and Joint Currency Crises

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  • de Vries, Casper G
  • Hartmann, Philipp
  • Straetmans, Stefan

Abstract

In this note we demonstrate that in affine models for bilateral exchange rates, the nature of return interdependence during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals’ distribution. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or vanishes asymptotically. We show that if one currency return reaches crisis levels, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well vanishes asymptotically if the fundamentals’ distributions exhibit light tails (like, for example, the normal). If, however, the marginal distributions exhibit heavy tails, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well remains strictly positive even in the limit. This result implies that linearity and heavy tails are sufficient conditions for joint or contagious currency crises to happen systematically through fundamentals.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4338.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4338

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Keywords: asymptotic dependence; currency market linkages; financial crises; fundamentals; heavy tails;

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Cited by:
  1. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2004. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labour supply: a problem and a possible solution," Working Paper Series 0346, European Central Bank.
  2. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sawischlewski, Katja, 2005. "Robust Lessons about Practical Early Warning Systems," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-322, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  3. Marco Lombardi & Giorgio Calzolari, 2006. "Indirect estimation of alpha-stable stochastic volatility models," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2006_07, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
  4. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Gérard, Bruno & Kadareja, Arjan & Manganelli, Simone, 2006. "Financial integration of new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 0683, European Central Bank.

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