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Fundamentals and Joint Currency Crises

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  • de Vries, Casper
  • Hartmann, Philipp
  • Straetmans, Stefan

Abstract

In this note we demonstrate that in affine models for bilateral exchange rates, the nature of return interdependence during crises depends on the tail properties of the fundamentals? distribution. We denote crisis linkages as either strong or weak, in the sense that the dependence remains or vanishes asymptotically. We show that if one currency return reaches crisis levels, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well vanishes asymptotically if the fundamentals? distributions exhibit light tails (like, for example, the normal). If, however, the marginal distributions exhibit heavy tails, the probability that the other currency breaks down as well remains strictly positive even in the limit. This result implies that linearity and heavy tails are sufficient conditions for joint or contagious currency crises to happen systematically through fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • de Vries, Casper & Hartmann, Philipp & Straetmans, Stefan, 2004. "Fundamentals and Joint Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 4338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4338
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    2. Lombardi, Marco J. & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2009. "Indirect estimation of [alpha]-stable stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2298-2308, April.
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    5. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Gérard, Bruno & Kadareja, Arjan & Manganelli, Simone, 2006. "Financial integration of new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 683, European Central Bank.
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    8. Azis Iwan J. & Mitra Sabyasachi & Baluga Anthony, 2013. "Global Shock and Regional Spillovers," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 183-211, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; Currency market linkages; Fundamentals; Heavy tails; Asymptotic dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G39 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Other

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