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Bayesian averaging, prediction and nonnested model selection

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  • Hong, Han
  • Preston, Bruce

Abstract

This paper studies the asymptotic relationship between Bayesian model averaging and post-selection frequentist predictors in both nested and nonnested models. We derive conditions under which their difference is of a smaller order of magnitude than the inverse of the square root of the sample size in large samples. This result depends crucially on the relation between posterior odds and frequentist model selection criteria. Weak conditions are given under which consistent model selection is feasible, regardless of whether models are nested or nonnested and regardless of whether models are correctly specified or not, in the sense that they select the best model with the least number of parameters with probability converging to 1. Under these conditions, Bayesian posterior odds and BICs are consistent for selecting among nested models, but are not consistent for selecting among nonnested models and possibly overlapping models. These findings have important bearing for applied researchers who are frequent users of model selection tools for empirical investigation of model predictions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 167 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 358-369

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:167:y:2012:i:2:p:358-369

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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Keywords: Model selection criteria; Nonnested; Posterior odds; BIC;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Javier García - Cicco & Roque Montero, 2011. "Modeling Copper Price: A Regime-Switching Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 613, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Alin Mirestean & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Huigang Chen, 2009. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods," IMF Working Papers 09/74, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2010. "Real estate prices and bank stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1129-1138, June.
  4. Erhard Reschenhofer & David Preinerstorfer & Lukas Steinberger, 2013. "Non-monotonic penalizing for the number of structural breaks," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(6), pages 2585-2598, December.
  5. Huigang Chen & Alin Mirestean & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2011. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model," IMF Working Papers 11/230, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Mao, Guangyu, 2013. "Model selection for regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 497-501.

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