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Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts

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Author Info
Wright, Jonathan H.

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Abstract

Exchange rate forecasting is hard and the seminal result of Meese and Rogoff [Meese, R., Rogoff, K., 1983. Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: Do they fit out of sample? Journal of International Economics 14, 3-24] that the exchange rate is well approximated by a driftless random walk, at least for prediction purposes, still stands despite much effort at constructing other forecasting models. However, in several other macro and financial forecasting applications, researchers in recent years have considered methods for forecasting that effectively combine the information in a large number of time series. In this paper, I apply one such method for pooling forecasts from several different models, Bayesian Model Averaging, to the problem of pseudo out-of-sample exchange rate predictions. For most currency-horizon pairs, the Bayesian Model Averaging forecasts using a sufficiently high degree of shrinkage, give slightly smaller out-of-sample mean square prediction error than the random walk benchmark. The forecasts generated by this model averaging methodology are however very close to, but not identical to, those from the random walk forecast.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 146 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 329-341
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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:146:y:2008:i:2:p:329-341

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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Keywords: Shrinkage Model uncertainty Forecasting Exchange rates Bootstrap;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pablo Pincheira, 2006. "Shrinkage Based Tests of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 376, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2004. "Can Fluctuations in the Consumption-Wealth Ratio Help to Predict Exchange Rates?," International Finance 0404014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Theo Eicher & Christian Henn & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects," IMF Working Papers 08/66, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics," NBER Working Papers 10916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, . "Forecast combination and the Bank of England’s suite of statistical forecasting models," Bank of England working papers 323, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Andrew Swiston & Tamim Bayoumi, 2008. "Spillovers Across NAFTA," IMF Working Papers 08/3, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Forecasting U.S. inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging," International Finance Discussion Papers 780, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Diego Nocetti & William T. Smith, 2006. "Why Do Pooled Forecasts Do Better Than Individual Forecasts Ex Post?," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 4(36), pages 1-7. [Downloadable!]
  9. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of US CPI Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5304, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, . "Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation," Bank of England working papers 268, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Reports 327, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Andrew Swiston & Tamim Bayoumi, 2007. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/182, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Neil R. Ericsson, 2008. "The fragility of sensitivity analysis: an encompassing perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 959, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Han Hong & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Bayesian Averaging, Prediction and Nonnested Model Selection," NBER Working Papers 14284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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