This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Estimating dynamic equilibrium economies: linear versus nonlinear likelihood

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez (Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, USA)
Jesus Fernández-Villaverde (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, USA)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper compares two methods for undertaking likelihood-based inference in dynamic equilibrium economies: a sequential Monte Carlo filter and the Kalman filter. The sequential Monte Carlo filter exploits the nonlinear structure of the economy and evaluates the likelihood function of the model by simulation methods. The Kalman filter estimates a linearization of the economy around the steady state. We report two main results. First, both for simulated and for real data, the sequential Monte Carlo filter delivers a substantially better fit of the model to the data as measured by the marginal likelihood. This is true even for a nearly linear case. Second, the differences in terms of point estimates, although relatively small in absolute values, have important effects on the moments of the model. We conclude that the nonlinear filter is a superior procedure for taking models to the data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.814
File Format: text/html
File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
Download Restriction: no
File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2005-v20.7/
File Format: text/html
File Function: Supporting data files and programs
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2005)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
Pages: 891-910
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:20:y:2005:i:7:p:891-910

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/jcatalog/subscribe.jsp?issn=0883-7252

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Christopher A. Sims & Jinill Kim & Sunghyun Kim, 2003. "Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solution of Discrete Time Dynamic Equilibrium Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 162, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. S. Boragan Aruoba & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, 2003. "Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies," Working Paper 2003-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. John Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2000. "Is the stock market overvalued?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 20-40. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ali Dib, 2001. "An Estimated Canadian DSGE Model with Nominal and Real Rigidities," Working Papers 01-26, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2004. "Estimating Nonlinear Dynamic Equilibrium economies: A Likelihood Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:609-32 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Uhlig, H., 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper 97, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Application of weighted residual methods to dynamic economic models," Staff Report 232, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  11. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hafedh Bouakez & Emanuela Cardia & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2002. "Habit Formation and the Persistence of Monetary Shocks," Working Papers 02-27, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Kevin Moran & Veronika Dolar, 2002. "Estimated DGE Models and Forecasting Accuracy: A Preliminary Investigation with Canadian Data," Working Papers 02-18, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio & Manuel Santos, 2005. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670. [Downloadable!]
  17. Christopher Sims & Tao Zha, 2002. "Macroeconomic switching," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
  18. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1, January. [Downloadable!]
  19. Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, Juan, 2004. "Comparing dynamic equilibrium models to data: a Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 153-187, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Geweke, John, 1994. "Priors for Macroeconomic Time Series and Their Application," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 609-632, August. [Downloadable!]
  21. Lars Peter Hansen & Ellen R. McGrattan & Thomas J. Sargent, 1994. "Mechanics of forming and estimating dynamic linear economies," Staff Report 182, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  22. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Peter N. Ireland, 2002. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 536, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. Hall, George J., 1996. "Overtime, effort, and the propagation of business cycle shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 139-160, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. McGrattan, Ellen R & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1997. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle with Household Production and Fiscal Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 267-90, May.
    Other versions:
  26. Otrok, Christopher, 2001. "On measuring the welfare cost of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-92, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Working Papers 2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  28. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Florian Heiss, 2008. "Sequential numerical integration in nonlinear state space models for microeconometric panel data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 373-389. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jim Malley & Ulrich Woitek, 2009. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Estimated Hybrid RBC Model," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Manuel Santos, 2005. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000822, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hall, Alastair & Inoue, Atsushi & Nason M, James & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Information Criteria for Impulse Response Function Matching Estimation of DSGE Models," Working Papers 07-04, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "The Research Agenda: Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez on Estimating DSGE Models," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), November. [Downloadable!]
  7. Luca Dedola & Stefano Neri, 2006. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Working Paper Series 705, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2007. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Banco de España Working Papers 0715, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2004. "Estimating Nonlinear Dynamic Equilibrium economies: A Likelihood Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Ferroni, Filippo, 2009. "Trend agnostic one step estimation of DSGE models," MPRA Paper 14550, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Matthias Kredler, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of a Dynamic Partial-Equilibrium Model for Investment," Econometrics 0509003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2009. "The Econometrics of DSGE Models," NBER Working Papers 14677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000057, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Han Hong & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Bayesian Averaging, Prediction and Nonnested Model Selection," NBER Working Papers 14284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also indexes book chapters.

This page was last updated on 2009-7-3.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.