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Estimating dynamic equilibrium economies: linear versus nonlinear likelihood

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Author Info
Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez (Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, USA)
Jesus Fernández-Villaverde (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, USA)

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Abstract

This paper compares two methods for undertaking likelihood-based inference in dynamic equilibrium economies: a sequential Monte Carlo filter and the Kalman filter. The sequential Monte Carlo filter exploits the nonlinear structure of the economy and evaluates the likelihood function of the model by simulation methods. The Kalman filter estimates a linearization of the economy around the steady state. We report two main results. First, both for simulated and for real data, the sequential Monte Carlo filter delivers a substantially better fit of the model to the data as measured by the marginal likelihood. This is true even for a nearly linear case. Second, the differences in terms of point estimates, although relatively small in absolute values, have important effects on the moments of the model. We conclude that the nonlinear filter is a superior procedure for taking models to the data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.814
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2005)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
Pages: 891-910
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:20:y:2005:i:7:p:891-910

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. S. Boragan Aruoba & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, 2003. "Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies," Working Paper 2003-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  3. John Geweke, 1998. "Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication," Staff Report 249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2004. "Estimating Nonlinear Dynamic Equilibrium economies: A Likelihood Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  8. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:609-32 is not listed on IDEAS
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  15. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio & Manuel Santos, 2005. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Florian Heiss, 2008. "Sequential numerical integration in nonlinear state space models for microeconometric panel data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 373-389. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jim Malley & Ulrich Woitek, 2009. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Estimated Hybrid RBC Model," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Manuel Santos, 2005. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000822, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hall, Alastair & Inoue, Atsushi & Nason M, James & Rossi, Barbara, 2007. "Information Criteria for Impulse Response Function Matching Estimation of DSGE Models," Working Papers 07-04, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "The Research Agenda: Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez on Estimating DSGE Models," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), November. [Downloadable!]
  7. Luca Dedola & Stefano Neri, 2006. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Working Paper Series 705, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2007. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Banco de España Working Papers 0715, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2004. "Estimating Nonlinear Dynamic Equilibrium economies: A Likelihood Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Ferroni, Filippo, 2009. "Trend agnostic one step estimation of DSGE models," MPRA Paper 14550, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Matthias Kredler, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of a Dynamic Partial-Equilibrium Model for Investment," Econometrics 0509003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000057, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Han Hong & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Bayesian Averaging, Prediction and Nonnested Model Selection," NBER Working Papers 14284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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