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Priors for Macroeconomic Time Series and Their Application

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Author Info
Geweke, John

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Abstract

This paper takes up Bayesian inference in a general trend stationary model for macroeconomic time series with independent Student-t disturbances. The model is linear in the data, but nonlinear in parameters. An informative but nonconjugate family of prior distributions for the parameters is introduced, indexed by a single parameter that can be readily elicited. The main technical contribution is the construction of posterior moments, densities, and odd ratios by using a six-step Gibbs sampler. Mappings from the index parameter of the family of prior distribution to posterior moments, densities, and odds ratios are developed for several of the Nelson Plosser time series. These mappings show that the posterior distribution is not even approximately Gaussian, and they indicate the sensitivity of the posterior odds ratio in favor of difference stationarity to the choice of the prior distribution.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 10 (1994)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (August)
Pages: 609-632
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:609-632_00

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Geweke, John F, 1986. "The Superneutrality of Money in the United States: An Interpretation of the Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-39, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Geweke, J., 1989. "The Posterior Distribution Of Roots In Multivariate Autoregressions," Papers 9027-a, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Econometric Institute.
  5. Geweke, John, 1988. "Antithetic acceleration of Monte Carlo integration in Bayesian inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 73-89. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kloek, Tuen & van Dijk, Herman K, 1978. "Bayesian Estimates of Equation System Parameters: An Application of Integration by Monte Carlo," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Thomas Doan & Robert Litterman & Christopher Sims, 1984. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-100. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Schotman, Peter C & van Dijk, Herman K, 1991. "On Bayesian Routes to Unit Roots," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 387-401, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. G. Pfann & P. Schotman & R. Tschernig, . "Nonlinear Interest Rate Dynamics and Implications for the Term Structure," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1994-43, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  2. Éric Jacquier & Nicholas G. Polson & Peter E. Rossi, 1999. "Stochastic Volatility: Univariate and Multivariate Extensions," CIRANO Working Papers 99s-26, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: Linear versus Nonlinear Likelihood," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-005, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2004. "Estimating Nonlinear Dynamic Equilibrium economies: A Likelihood Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, 2009. "The Econometrics of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "The Research Agenda: Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez on Estimating DSGE Models," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), November. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christopher A. Sims, 1992. "A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1034, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Alain Desgagné & Jean-François Angers, 2007. "Conflicting information and location parameter inference," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(1), pages 67-97. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jean-Francois Angers, 2000. "P-credence and outliersl," Metron - International Journal of Statistics, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate - University of Rome, vol. 0(3-4), pages 81-108. [Downloadable!]
  10. Sauer, Johannes, 2008. "Quota Deregulation and Organic versus Conventional Milk – A Bayesian Distance Function Approach," 82nd Annual Conference, March 31 - April 2, 2008, Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester, UK 36869, Agricultural Economics Society. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Eric Ghysels, 1993. "A time series model with periodic stochastic regime switching," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 84, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Fernandez, C. & Steel, M.F.J., 1997. "Multivariate student-T regression models : pitfalls and inference," Discussion Paper 8, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2006. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000849, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Fernandez, C. & Steel, M.F.J., 1996. "On Bayesian modelling of fat tails and skewness," Discussion Paper 58, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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