Bayesian Unit Root Testing: The Effect Of Choice Of Prior On Test Outcomes
AbstractA Monte Carlo experiment is used to examine the size and power properties of alternative Bayesian tests for unit roots. Four different prior distributions for the root that is potentially unity – a uniform prior and priors attributable to Jeffreys, Lubrano, and Berger and Yang – are used in conjunction with two testing procedures: a credible interval test and a Bayes factor test. Two extensions are also considered: a test based on model averaging with different priors and a test with a hierarchical prior for a hyperparameter. The tests are applied to both trending and non-trending series. Our results favor the use of a prior suggested by Lubrano. Outcomes from applying the tests to some Australian macroeconomic time series are presented.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The University of Melbourne in its series Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number 1152.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 2012
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2012-09-09 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2012-09-09 (Econometric Time Series)
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