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Unit Roots Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Peter C.B. Phillips () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University )
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Nonstationarity is certainly one of the most dominant and enduring characteristics of macroeconomic and financial time series. It therefore seems appropriate that this feature of the data be seriously addressed both in econometric methodology and in empirical practice. However, until recently this has not been the case. Before 1980, it was standard empirical practice in econometrics to treat observed trends as simple deterministic functions of time. Nelson-Plosser (1982) challenged this practice and showed that observed trends are better modeled if one allows for stochastic trends. Since their work there has been a continuing reappraisal of trend behavior in economic methods of nonstationary time series. This essay has touched only a part of this large research field and traced only the main ideas involved in unit root modeling and statistical testing.
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Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number
998.
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Length: 10 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1991Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:998Contact details of provider: Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA Phone: (203) 432-3702 Fax: (203) 432-6167 Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/ More information through EDIRC
Order Information: Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Glena Ames).
Keywords: Nonstationarity ; time series ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression ,"
Cahiers de recherche
8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
Other versions: Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981.
"Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981.
"A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle' ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1989.
"Testing for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
933, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!]
Phillips, P C B, 1987.
"Time Series Regression with a Unit Root ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots ,"
NBER Chapters ,
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots ,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots ,"
Papers
360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991.
"Bayesian Routes and Unit Roots: de rebus prioribus semper est disputandum ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
986, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root? ,"
Papers
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
Other versions:
Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root? ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!] Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Campbell, John Y. & Shiller, Robert J., 1988.
"Interpreting cointegrated models ,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control ,
Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 505-522.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
944, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990.
"Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991.
"The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise in Bayesian Influence ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1000, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!]
Peter C.B. Phillips & Werner Ploberger, 1991.
"Time Series Modelling with a Bayesian Frame of Reference: 1. Concepts and Illustrations ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
980, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!]
Schotman, Peter & van Dijk, Herman K., 1991.
"A Bayesian analysis of the unit root in real exchange rates ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 195-238.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Lawrence J. Christiano, 1988.
"Searching For a Break in GNP ,"
NBER Working Papers
2695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Phillips, P C B, 1991.
"To Criticize the Critics: An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Trends ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 333-64, Oct.-Dec..
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Bhargava, Alok, 1986.
"On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series ,"
Review of Economic Studies ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988.
"Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
869R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
[Downloadable!]
DeJong, David N & Whiteman, Charles H, 1991.
"The Temporal Stability of Dividends and Stock Prices: Evidence from the Likelihood Function ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 600-617, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990.
" Cointegration and Unit Roots ,"
Journal of Economic Surveys ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991.
"The Long-Run Australian Consumption Function Reexamined: An Empirical Exercise in Bayesian Influence ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1000, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!]
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