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Commercial property prices and bank performance

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Author Info
E Philip Davis ()
Haibin Zhu ()

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Abstract

We seek to assess the effect of changes in commercial property prices on bank behaviour and performance in a range of industrialised economies, extending the existing micro literature on bank performance. The results suggest that, consistent with macro-level studies, commercial property prices have a marked impact on the behaviour and performance of individual banks. The signs found are consistent with a view that commercial property provides important forms of collateral that are perceived by banks to reduce risk and encourage lending. Such an impact exists even when conventional independent variables determining bank performance are included. Moreover, there is evidence that the magnitude of this impact is related to the size of the bank, the direction of commercial property price movements, and regional factors. The results have implications for risk managers, regulators and monetary policy makers. Notably, they underline the crucial relevance of commercial property prices as a macroprudential variable that warrants close scrutiny by the authorities. They also highlight the need to develop indicators of individual bank exposure to the property market that could help to calibrate the potential impact of changes in prices in stress tests.

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Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Economics and Finance Discussion Papers with number 04-19.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:bru:bruedp:04-19

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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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  20. E. Philip Davis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "Bank lending and commercial property cycles: some cross-country evidence," BIS Working Papers 150, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Beckmann, Rainer, 2007. "Profitability of Western European banking systems: panel evidence on structural and cyclical determinants," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  2. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2008. "The implications of latent technology regimes for competition and efficiency in banking," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Phong T. H. Ngo, 2006. "Endogenous Capital and Profitability in Banking," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2006-464, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2008. "Real estate markets and bank distress," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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