IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wdi/papers/2009-970.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Financial Integration And Real Exchange Rate Long-Run Dynamics In Emerging Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe RAULT
  • Guglielmo Maria CAPORALE
  • Thouraya HADJ AMOR

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of international financial integration on the long-run Real Exchange Rate (RER) in 39 developing countries belonging to three different geographical regions (Latin America, Asia and MENA). It covers the period 1979-2004, and carries out "second-generation" tests for non-stationary panels. Several factors, including international financial integration, are shown to drive the long-run RER in emerging countries. It is found that the new financial environment characterised by international financial integration leads to a depreciation of the RER in the long run. Further, RER misalignments take the form of an under-valuation in most MENA countries and an over-valuation in most Latin American and Asian countries

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe RAULT & Guglielmo Maria CAPORALE & Thouraya HADJ AMOR, 2009. "International Financial Integration And Real Exchange Rate Long-Run Dynamics In Emerging Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp970, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2009-970
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64383/1/wp970.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 9-30, Fall.
    2. Gavin, Michael, 1992. "Monetary policy, exchange rates, and investment in a Keynesian economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 145-161, April.
    3. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    4. Neary, Peter, 1988. "Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 210-215, March.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open- Economy Macroeconomics," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 23-46, December.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Smith, R. Todd, 2002. "Temporary controls on capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 327-351, August.
    7. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    8. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
    9. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    10. Westerlund, Joakim & Edgerton, David L., 2007. "A panel bootstrap cointegration test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 185-190, December.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    12. Otero, Jesus & Smith, Jeremy & Giulietti, Monica, 2005. "Testing for seasonal unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 229-235, February.
    13. Lane, P.R. & Ganelli, G., 2002. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis: The Open Economy Dimension," CEG Working Papers 20026, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    14. Richard Baldwin & Philippe Martin, 1999. "Two Waves of Globalisation: Superficial Similarities, Fundamental Differences," Post-Print hal-03417560, HAL.
    15. Leybourne, S J, 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots Using Forward and Reverse Dickey-Fuller Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 559-571, November.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    17. Corbae,Dean & Durlauf,Steven N. & Hansen,Bruce E. (ed.), 2006. "Econometric Theory and Practice," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521807234.
    18. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Banerjee, Anindya & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís, 2006. "Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence," Working Paper Series 591, European Central Bank.
    20. Simon Burgess & Dan Mawson, 2003. "Aggregate Growth and the Efficiency of Labour Reallocation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0580, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    21. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    22. Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Disinflation: Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 4320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
    24. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    25. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Lithuania: History and Future of the Currency Board Arrangement," IMF Working Papers 2002/127, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahrèche-Revil & Mignon, Valerie, 2004. "Burden Sharing and Exchange-Rate Misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Working Papers 2004-13, CEPII research center.
    27. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    28. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    29. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, October.
    30. L. Vanessa Smith & Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2004. "More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to mean reversion in real exchange rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 147-170.
    31. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Mr. Ayhan Kose & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff & Mr. Eswar S Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 2003/007, International Monetary Fund.
    33. Edwards, Sebastian, 1989. "Exchange Rate Misalignment in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 4(1), pages 3-21, January.
    34. Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2004. "What is behind the real appreciation of the accession countries' currencies?: An investigation of the PPI-based real exchange rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-403, December.
    35. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    36. MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "Exchange Rate Behaviour: Are Fundamentals Important?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 673-691, November.
    37. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    38. Gagnon, Joseph E., 1993. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 269-287, May.
    39. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1998. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-84.
    40. Bordo, Michael D & Choudhri, Ehsan U, 1982. "Currency Substitution and the Demand for Money: Some Evidence for Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 48-57, February.
    41. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    42. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1984. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 208-217, May.
    43. Darvas, Zsolt, 2001. "Exchange rate pass-through and real exchange rate in EU candidate countries," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,10, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    44. Morel, Louis & Perron, Benoit, 2003. "Relation entre le taux de change et les exportations nettes : test de la condition Marshall-Lerner pour le Canada," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(4), pages 481-502, Décembre.
    45. Jörg Rahn, 2003. "Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the EU Accession Countries against the Euro," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20306, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    46. Edwards, Sebastian, 1988. "Real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior: Theory and evidence from developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 311-341, November.
    47. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    48. Stein, Jerome L. & Allen, Polly Reynolds, 1998. "Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198293064.
    49. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    50. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2005. "Déterminants de long terme des taux de change réels pour les pays en développement : une comparaison internationale," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 13(1), pages 123-150.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Ben Youssef, Adel & M'henni, Hatem & Rault, Christophe, 2012. "Energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Middle East and North African countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 342-349.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Financial Integration: A Dynamic GMM Panel Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3645, CESifo.
    3. Nicolas Moumni & Salma Dasser, 2020. "Moroccan Dirham Flexibilization and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Quest for Grail?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 132-140.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "International financial integration and real exchange rate long-run dynamics in emerging countries: Some panel evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 789-808, September.
    2. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union," Working Papers hal-00322086, HAL.
    3. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    4. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Purchasing Power Parity For Developing And Developed Countries. What Can We Learn From Non‐Stationary Panel Data Models?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 752-773, September.
    5. Ozcan, Burcu, 2013. "The nexus between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Middle East countries: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1138-1147.
    6. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship : a Panel Data Diagnostic," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/45, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Acikgoz, Senay & Ben Ali, Mohamed Sami, 2019. "Where does economic growth in the Middle Eastern and North African countries come from?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 172-183.
    9. Mohamed El Hédi Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les marchés boursiers dans les pays du Golfe," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 61(5), pages 945-959.
    10. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Ben Youssef, Adel & M'henni, Hatem & Rault, Christophe, 2012. "Energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Middle East and North African countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 342-349.
    11. Holly, Sean & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, Takashi, 2010. "A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 160-173, September.
    12. Kholodilin Konstantin A. & Menz Jan-Oliver & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2010. "What Drives Housing Prices Down? Evidence from an International Panel," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(1), pages 59-76, February.
    13. Sung, Bongsuk & Song, Woo-Yong & Park, Sang-Do, 2018. "How foreign direct investment affects CO2 emission levels in the Chinese manufacturing industry: Evidence from panel data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 320-331.
    14. Frenkel Michael & Koske Isabell, 2012. "Are the Real Exchange Rates of the New EU Member Countries in Line with Fundamentals? – Implications of the NATREX Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(2), pages 129-145, April.
    15. Cécile Couharde & Issiaka Coulibaly & Olivier Damette, 2011. "Misalignments and Dynamics of Real Exchange Rates in the CFA Franc Zone," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-28, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    16. Wenjing Zhang & Hengzhou Xu, 2017. "Exploring the causal relationship between carbon emissions and land urbanization quality in China using a panel data analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1445-1462, August.
    17. Kasman, Adnan & Duman, Yavuz Selman, 2015. "CO2 emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: A panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 97-103.
    18. Dehghan Shabani, Zahra & Shahnazi, Rouhollah, 2019. "Energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, information and communications technology, and gross domestic product in Iranian economic sectors: A panel causality analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 1064-1078.
    19. Karikallio, Hanna, 2015. "Cross-commodity Price Transmission and Integration of the EU Livestock Market of Pork and Beef: Panel Time-series Approach," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211832, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Post-Print halshs-00276402, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging economies; real exchange rate; financial integration; misalignment; second-generation panel unit-root and cointegration tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2009-970. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: WDI (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wdumius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.