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3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union

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  • António Afonso
  • Christophe Rault

Abstract

We use a 3-step analysis to assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU27. Firstly, we perform the SURADF specific panel unit root test to investigate the mean-reverting behaviour of general government expenditures and revenues ratios. Secondly, we apply the bootstrap panel cointegration techniques that account for the time series and cross-sectional dependencies of the regression error. Thirdly, we check for a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues via SUR analysis. While results imply that public finances were not unsustainable for the EU panel, fiscal sustainability is an issue in most countries, with a below unit estimated coefficient of expenditure in the cointegration relation.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2008/wp-cesifo-2008-09/cesifo1_wp2393.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2393.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2393

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Keywords: fiscal sustainability; EU; panel cointegration;

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References

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  1. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Should we Care for Structural Breaks When Assessing Fiscal Sustainability?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/01, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  2. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-01, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  3. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2007. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Working Papers hal-00322091, HAL.
  4. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1997. "The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the Post-Bretton Woods Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 1730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2011. "Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2011-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 13 Jul 2011.
  2. Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 130-146, February.
  3. Bogdan Dima & Oana Lobont & Cristina Nicolescu, 2009. "The Fiscal Revenues And Public Expenditures: Is Their Evolution Sustenable? The Romanian Case," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(11), pages 42.
  4. António Afonso, 2009. "Neck, R. and Sturm, J.-E. (eds.): Sustainability of public debt," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 95-96, May.
  5. Emilia Câmpeanu & Andreea Stoian, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Reaction in the Short Term for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in the Long Runin Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 501-518, December.
  6. Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2011. "Are we able to capture the EU debt crisis? Evidence from PIIGGS countries in panel unit root framework," MPRA Paper 30334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Tomomi Miyazaki, 2014. "Fiscal Reform and Fiscal Sustainability: Evidence from Australia and Sweden," Discussion Papers 1407, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  8. Susanu, Monica, 2009. "Convergence to EMU through the Test of the Public Finance –Romania’s Budgetary Deficit and Public Debt," MPRA Paper 20480, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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