Are EU budget deficits stationary?
AbstractIn this paper, we test for the stationarity of European Union budget deficits over the period 1971 to 2006, using a panel of thirteen member countries. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit root panel data testing, namely (i) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries in the panel and (ii) the identification of potential structural breaks that might have occurred at different points in time. To address these concerns, we employ an AR-based bootstrap approach that allows us to test the null hypothesis of joint stationarity with endogenously determined structural breaks. In contrast to the existing literature, we find that the EU countries considered are characterised by fiscal stationarity over the full sample period irrespective of us allowing for structural breaks. This conclusion also holds when analysing sub-periods based on before and after the Maastricht treaty.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/index.htm
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Caner, Mehmet & Kilian, Lutz, 2000.
"Size Distortions Of Tests Of The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity: Evidence And Implications For The PPP Debate,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2425, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October.
- Kilian, L. & Caner, M., 1999. "Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for the PPP Debate," Papers 99-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Donggyu Sul & Peter C.B. Phillips & Choi, Chi-Young, 2003.
"Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1436, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Kaddour Hadri, 1999.
"Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data,"
1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
- Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
- Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
- Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
- Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1988.
"Testing intertemporal budget constraints: theory and applications to U. S. federal budget and current account deficits,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
88-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-23, May.
- Giulietti, Monica & Otero, Jesus & Smith, Jeremy, 2006. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data in the presence of cross section dependence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 758, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.
- Martin, G.M., 1998.
"U.S. Deficit Sustainability: A New Approach Based on Multiple Endogenous Breaks,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
1/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
- Josep Llu�s Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tom�s del Barrio-Castro & Enrique L�pez-Bazo, 2005.
"Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, 07.
- Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2003. "Breaking the panels. An application to the GDP per capita," Working Papers in Economics 97, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
- Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2011.
"Cointegration in Panel Data with Breaks and Cross-section Dependence,"
11-25, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís, 2006. "Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence," Working Paper Series 591, European Central Bank.
- Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2006. "Cointegration in Panel Data with Breaks and Cross-Section Dependence," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/5, European University Institute.
- Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003.
"Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
- Tom Doan, . "IPSHIN: RATS procedure to implement Im, Pesaran and Shin panel unit root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00098, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Silika Prohl & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2006. "Sustainability of Public Debt and Budget Deficit: Panel cointegration analysis for the European Union Member countries," Economics working papers 2006-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988.
"Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
- Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 87-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Kaddour Hadri & Yao Rao, 2008.
"Panel Stationarity Test with Structural Breaks,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 245-269, 04.
- António Afonso, 2005.
"Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case,"
FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis,
Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
- Antonio Afonso, 2004. "Fiscal Sustainability: the Unpleasant European Case," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 57, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Tanner, Evan & Liu, Peter, 1994. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large"?: Some Further Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(3), pages 511-18, July.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2006. "A guide to the computation of stationarity tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 433-448, June.
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
- Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2011.
"Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe,"
Bank of Estonia Working Papers
wp2011-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 13 Jul 2011.
- Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2013. "Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 45(22), pages 3211-3219, August.
- Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Steahr, 2011. "Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 2011014, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2011.
- Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2011. "Are we able to capture the EU debt crisis? Evidence from PIIGGS countries in panel unit root framework," MPRA Paper 30334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.