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Estimating Cointegrated Panels with Common Factors and the Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis

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  • Joakim Westerlund

Abstract

This article proposes a bias-adjusted estimator for use in cointegrated panel regressions when the errors are cross-sectionally correlated through an unknown common factor structure. The asymptotic distribution of the new estimator is derived and is examined in small samples using Monte Carlo simulations. For the estimation of the number of factors, several information-based criteria are considered. The simulation results suggest that the new estimator performs well in comparison to existing ones. In our empirical application, we provide new evidence suggesting that the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis cannot be rejected. Copyright , Oxford University Press.

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  • Joakim Westerlund, 0. "Estimating Cointegrated Panels with Common Factors and the Forward Rate Unbiasedness Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 491-522.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:5:y::i:3:p:491-522
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbm006
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    Cited by:

    1. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert & MacDonald, Ronald, 2011. "The global dimension to fiscal sustainability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 137-150, June.
    2. Antonio Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union," Post-Print halshs-00363702, HAL.
    3. Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Klasen, Stephan & Herzer, Dierk, 2008. "Aid and Trade from a Donor's Perspective," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Zurich 2008 27, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    4. Costantini, Mauro & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "What uncertainty does to euro area sovereign bond markets: Flight to safety and flight to quality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    5. Dufrénot G. & Paul L., 2010. "Fiscal developments in the euro area beyond the crisis: some lessons drawn from fiscal reaction functions," Working papers 292, Banque de France.
    6. Mustafa zye il, 2019. "Relationship between Brand Value, Firm Size and Stock Price Performance: 2nd Generation Panel Data Analysis on Turkish Retail Sector and Sport Clubs," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 38-43.
    7. Kontana Dimitra & Fountas Stilianos, 2022. "Consumption, personal income, financial wealth, housing wealth, and long-term interest rates: a panel cointegration approach for 50 US states," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(3), pages 417-435, June.
    8. Ismet GOCER & Sedat ALATAS & Osman PEKER, 2016. "Effects of R&D and innovation on income in EU countries: new generation panel cointegration and causality analysis," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(609), W), pages 153-164, Winter.
    9. Paulo André Camuri & Frederico G. Jayme Jr. & Ana Maria Hermeto, 2015. "Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies [Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(spe), pages 835-861, December.
    10. Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D. & Inmaculada Mart�nez-Zarzoso & Stephan Klasen & Dierk Herzer, 2009. "Aid and Trade - A Donor's Perspective," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 1184-1202, August.
    11. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship : a Panel Data Diagnostic," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/45, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. García Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2009. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Developed Countries and Emerging Market Economies: Different Outcomes Explained," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-24.
    13. Jushan Bai & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, 2013. "Testing panel cointegration with unobservable dynamic common factors that are correlated with the regressors," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(2), pages 222-249, June.
    14. Arif Eser Guzel & Unal Arslan & Ali Acaravci, 2021. "The impact of economic, social, and political globalization and democracy on life expectancy in low-income countries: are sustainable development goals contradictory?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13508-13525, September.
    15. García-Solanes, José & Sancho-Portero, F. Israel & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2008. "Beyond the Balassa-Samuelson effect in some new member states of the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 17-32, March.
    16. Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Radu S. & Urga, Giovanni, 2015. "Trading strategies with implied forward credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 361-375.
    17. Afonso, António & Rault, Christophe, 2015. "Multi-step analysis of public finances sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 199-209.
    18. Mauro Costantini & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2020. "Consumption, asset wealth, equity premium, term spread, and flight to quality," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(3), pages 778-807, June.

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