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3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union

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  • António Afonso

    (BCE - Banque Centrale Européenne - BCE)

  • Christophe Rault

    ()
    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR6221 - Université d'Orléans)

Abstract

We use a 3-step analysis to assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU27. Firstly, we perform the SURADF specific panel unit root test to investigate the meanreverting behaviour of general government expenditures and revenues ratios. Secondly, we apply the bootstrap panel cointegration techniques that account for the time series and cross-sectional dependencies of the regression error. Thirdly, we check for a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues via SUR analysis. While results imply that public finances were not unsustainable for the EU panel, fiscal sustainability is an issue in most countries, with a below unit estimated coefficient of expenditure in the cointegration relation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00322086.

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Date of creation: 01 May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00322086

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Keywords: fiscal sustainability; EU; panel cointegration.;

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  1. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Susanu, Monica, 2009. "Convergence to EMU through the Test of the Public Finance –Romania’s Budgetary Deficit and Public Debt," MPRA Paper 20480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Emilia Câmpeanu & Andreea Stoian, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Reaction in the Short Term for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in the Long Runin Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 501-518, December.
  3. Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2009. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments - a new approach," Working Paper Series 1032, European Central Bank.
  4. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Steahr, 2011. "Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 2011014, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2011.
  5. António Afonso, 2009. "Neck, R. and Sturm, J.-E. (eds.): Sustainability of public debt," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 95-96, May.
  6. Tomomi Miyazaki, 2014. "Fiscal Reform and Fiscal Sustainability: Evidence from Australia and Sweden," Discussion Papers 1407, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  7. Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2011. "Are we able to capture the EU debt crisis? Evidence from PIIGGS countries in panel unit root framework," MPRA Paper 30334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Bogdan Dima & Oana Lobont & Cristina Nicolescu, 2009. "The Fiscal Revenues And Public Expenditures: Is Their Evolution Sustenable? The Romanian Case," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(11), pages 42.

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