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Sustainability of Public Debt and Budget Deficit: Panel cointegration analysis for the European Union Member countries

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Author Info
Silika Prohl () (University of St. Gallen, SIAW-HSG)
Friedrich G. Schneider () (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria)

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Abstract

In this study, we analyse the sustainability of fiscal policy of EU member countries within the panel cointegration and error-correction frameworks. Unlike the previous empirical papers in this area, we apply the test for panel cointegration between the primary budget deficit and the public debt defined in GDP ratios. Based on the cointegration test results, we conclude that the fiscal policy is consistent with the intertemporal budget constraint, i.e., it is sustainable in the panel of fifteen EU member countries over the period from 1970 to 2004. Hence, we show that the fiscal balance exhibits a significant structural change in the year 1992, when we apply the Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) test for a structural break in the panel cointegration relationship. In a next step, we search for the politico-economic factors which explain the variation in the sustainable fiscal balance among the European countries. We evidence that the European fiscal rules have a significant positive effect on the improvement of the fiscal position of the governments of the EU member countries.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria in its series Economics working papers with number 2006-10.

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Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2006_10

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Related research
Keywords: Sustainability; Budget Deficit; Panel Cointegration; Structural Breaks; Panel error-correction method;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union," Working Papers 2008/35, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Talpos, Ioan & Dima, Bogdan & Mutascu, Mihai & Enache, Cosmin, 2009. "Empirical Evidencies for the Budget Deficits Co-Integration in the Old European Union Members: Are there any Interlinkages in Fiscal Policies?," MPRA Paper 12647, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "What do we really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Should we care for structural breaks when assessing fiscal sustainability?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp902, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2007. "What We Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic," Working Papers 2007/20, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mark J. Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Jesus Otero, 2008. "Are EU budgets stationary?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Joseph P. Byrne & Norbert Fiess & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability," Working Papers 2008_10, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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