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Empirical Evidencies for the Budget Deficits Co-Integration in the Old European Union Members: Are there any Interlinkages in Fiscal Policies?

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Author Info
Talpos, Ioan
Dima, Bogdan
Mutascu, Mihai
Enache, Cosmin

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Abstract

In the last years, the fiscal harmonization among the European Union members has become a pillar of economic integration and of fiscal and financial stability in the European area. The institutional changes, the semi-failure of the “old” Stability and Growth Pact as well as the recent waves of enlargements all these were put a greater emphasis on this issue inducing a higher pressure for fiscal discipline. In this context, the objective of the paper is to examines recent empirical evidences for bilateral and multilateral integration between fiscal policies, as this are synthesised by budget deficits, of old European Union members in the framework of the Johansen co-integration procedure with a preliminary appliance of the principal component analysis. The study finds that the dynamic of European fiscal policies takes place under the impact of some common driving forces which leads to a differentiate behaviour of two sub regional-groups individualized by the budget deficit series evolutionary patterns. Overall, it concludes that there could be find empirical evidences to support the thesis that a process of fiscal integration is currently running at least at the level of old European Union countries.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12647.

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Date of creation: 09 Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12647

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Related research
Keywords: Fiscal policies in E.U.; budget deficits; co-integration; Johansen Test;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

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  1. Gonzalo Fernández de Córdoba & José L. Torres, 2007. "Fiscal Harmonization in the Presence of Public Inputs," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2007/08, Centro de Estudios Andaluces. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  3. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-, March.
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  4. Levine, Paul, 1993. "Fiscal Policy Co-ordination under EMU and the Choice of Monetary Instrument," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(0), pages 1-12, Suppl..
  5. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís, 2006. "Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence," Working Paper Series 591, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Silika Prohl & Friedrich G. Schneider, 2006. "Sustainability of Public Debt and Budget Deficit: Panel cointegration analysis for the European Union Member countries," Economics working papers 2006-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
  8. W. R. M. Perraudin & Thierry Pujol, 1990. "European Fiscal Harmonization and the French Economy," IMF Working Papers 90/96, International Monetary Fund.
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