IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v7y2019i1p8-d202844.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Fluctuations: The Case of BIST-100

Author

Listed:
  • Caner Demir

    (Department of Economics, Manisa Celal Bayar University, Salihli-Manisa 43500, Turkey)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of some prominent macroeconomic factors on the Turkish Stock Market index, BIST-100 (Borsa Istanbul-100). For centuries, and mostly since the 20th century, stock markets are at the heart of economies. In our era, the largest economic crises arise from the stock market instabilities and thus, the stock markets are the focus of interest of the economy. Economists, investors, and policymakers try to predict the tendency of share prices, which substantially depend on foreign and domestic macroeconomic factors. Within this purpose, this study tries to investigate the impact of some selected macroeconomic factors on BIST-100 index over the 2003Q1–2017Q4 period. The findings obtained from the quarterly data via the ARDL Bounds Test suggest that economic growth, the relative value of the domestic currency, portfolio investments and foreign direct investments raise the stock market index while interest rate and crude oil prices negatively affect it. The results briefly reveal that the Istanbul Stock Exchange Market needs stronger domestic currency, higher international capital inflows, and lower energy and investment costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Caner Demir, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Fluctuations: The Case of BIST-100," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:7:y:2019:i:1:p:8-:d:202844
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/7/1/8/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/7/1/8/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    2. Adam, Anokye M. & Tweneboah, George, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment and Stock market Development: Ghana’s Evidence," MPRA Paper 11985, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Strøm,Steinar (ed.), 1999. "Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521633659.
    5. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks And Stock Market Booms In An Oil Exporting Country," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(2), pages 232-254, May.
    6. Baek, Jungho & Gweisah, Guankerwon, 2013. "Does income inequality harm the environment?: Empirical evidence from the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1434-1437.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    8. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-277, August.
    9. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "What Determines Migration Flows From Low‐Income To High‐Income Countries? An Empirical Investigation Of Fiji–U.S. Migration 1972–2001," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(2), pages 332-342, April.
    10. Joel H. Eita, 2011. "Determinants of Stock Market Prices in Namibia," Working Papers 209, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    11. Massomeh Hajilee & Omar Al Nasser, 2014. "Exchange rate volatility and stock market development in emerging economies," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 163-180.
    12. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    13. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    14. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
    15. Singh, Ajit & Weisse, Bruce A., 1998. "Emerging stock markets, portfolio capital flows and long-term economie growth: Micro and macroeconomic perspectives," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 607-622, April.
    16. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Renatas Kizys, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from European Data," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    18. Issouf Soumaré & Fulbert Tchana Tchana, 2015. "Causality between FDI and Financial Market Development: Evidence from Emerging Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(suppl_1), pages 205-216.
    19. Strøm,Steinar (ed.), 1999. "Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521633239.
    20. Jing Shi & Chris Bilson & John G. Powell & Julie Wigg, 2010. "Foreign direct investment and international stock market integration," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 35(3), pages 265-290, December.
    21. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
    22. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    23. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    24. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
    25. Tarun K. Mukherjee & Atsuyuki Naka, 1995. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables And The Japanese Stock Market: An Application Of A Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, June.
    26. Husam Rjoub & Turgut Türsoy & Nil Günsel, 2009. "The effects of macroeconomic factors on stock returns: Istanbul Stock Market," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(1), pages 36-45, March.
    27. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis, 2004. "A comparison of autoregressive distributed lag and dynamic OLS cointegration estimators in the case of a serially correlated cointegration error," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 585-617, December.
    28. Baek, Jungho & Kim, Hyun Seok, 2013. "Is economic growth good or bad for the environment? Empirical evidence from Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 744-749.
    29. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
    30. Agbloyor, Elikplimi Komla & Abor, Joshua & Adjasi, Charles Komla Delali & Yawson, Alfred, 2013. "Exploring the causality links between financial markets and foreign direct investment in Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 118-134.
    31. Wongbangpo, Praphan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-51.
    32. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, Summer.
    33. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2009. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long-term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 111-119.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Suha Alawi, 2019. "The Effect of Direct Foreign Investment on Stock Price Volatility in the Saudi Market," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(8), pages 875-887, August.
    2. Mian Numan Raheem & M. Adrees, 2021. "The Effect of Risk and Uncertainty Factors on Managerial Decision Making," Journal of Education and Vocational Research, AMH International, vol. 12(1), pages 30-37.
    3. Mustafa Tevfik KARTAL & Özer DEPREN & Serpil KILIC DEPREN, 2021. "Do Monetary Policy Measures Affect Foreign Exchange Rates during the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from Turkey," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 15(2), pages 175-202.
    4. Mugebe, P. & Kizil, M.S. & Yahyaei, M. & Low, R., 2023. "Foundation of a framework for evaluating the impact of mining technological innovation on a company's market value," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    5. DerviÅŸ Kirikkaleli & Mustafa Tevfik Kartal & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, 2022. "Time And Frequency Dependency Of Foreign Exchange Rates And Country Risk:Evidence From Turkey," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(1), pages 37-54, June.
    6. P. K. Mishra & S. K. Mishra, 2022. "Is the Impact of COVID-19 Significant in Determining Equity Market Integration? Insights from BRICS Economies," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(2), pages 137-162, May.
    7. R. L. N. Murthy & Hardeep Singh Mundi, 2023. "Stock Return Synchronicity and Profitability: Evidence from India," Paradigm, , vol. 27(1), pages 47-59, June.
    8. Ngo Thai HUNG, 2022. "Re-Study on Dynamic Connectedness between Macroeconomic Indicators and the Stock Market in China," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 104-124, April.
    9. Tratkowski Grzegorz, 2020. "Identification of nonlinear determinants of stock indices derived by Random Forest algorithm," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 56(3), pages 209-217, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caner Demir & Raif Cergibozan & Adem Gök, 2019. "Income inequality and CO2 emissions: Empirical evidence from Turkey," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(3), pages 444-461, May.
    2. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    3. H. Bayram Irhan & Nur Dilbaz Alacahan & Levent Korap, 2011. "An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 14(1), pages 38-61, May.
    4. Tsermenidis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Προσδιοριστικοί Παράγοντες Της Εθνικής Αποταμίευσης Κατά Την Περίοδο 1990-2010 Και Μέτρα Ενίσχυσης Της Οικονομικής Ανάπτυξης [The Determinants of National Savings in Greece during the period 1990-2," MPRA Paper 56773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hosseini, Seyed Mehdi & Ahmad, Zamri & Lai, Yew Wah, 2011. "The Role of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Index in China and India," MPRA Paper 112215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
    7. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2005. "A Resolution of the Fisher Effect Puzzle: A Comparison of Estimators," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 18, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    8. Pär Österholm, 2005. "The Taylor Rule: A Spurious Regression?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 217-247, July.
    9. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 57368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    11. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    12. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    13. Halil Alt ntas & Melike Kum, 2013. "Multivariate Granger Causality between Electricity Generation, Exports, Prices and Economic Growth in Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(Special), pages 41-51.
    14. Jin, Wei & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhang, Lin, 2021. "Energy transition without dirty capital stranding," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    15. Angeliki N. Menegaki, 2019. "The ARDL Method in the Energy-Growth Nexus Field; Best Implementation Strategies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-16, October.
    16. Österholm, Pär, 2003. "Testing for Cointegration in Misspecified Systems –A Monte Carlo Study of Size Distortions," Working Paper Series 2003:21, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    17. Md. Abu HASAN, 2017. "Efficiency and Volatility of the Stock Market in Bangladesh: A Macroeconometric Analysis," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 239-249, June.
    18. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    19. Mohammad Jaforullah & Alan King, 2015. "is New Zealand's economy vulnerable to world oil market shocks?," Working Papers 1503, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2015.
    20. Hirak Ray & Malay Kanti Ray & Joydeep Biswas, 2009. "Bank, Market and Economic Growth," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 10(2), pages 403-428, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:7:y:2019:i:1:p:8-:d:202844. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.