An empirical model for the Turkish trade balance: new evidence from ARDL bounds testing analyses
AbstractIn this paper, the determinants of the Turkish trade balance are tried to be analyzed in an empirical modelling approach. For this purpose, the contemporaneous ARDL-based bounds testing has been used to examine the existence of a long run co-integration relationship between the variables of our interest. The estimation results indicate that real exchange rate depreciations improves the trade balance in a strong and significant way, that domestic real income affects the trade balance negatively, and that trade balance is strongly improved due to an increase in foreign real income. No significant effect of crude oil prices can be observed on trade balance. The error correction modeling gives results in line with the long run findings of the co-integration analysis.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32550.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Trade Balance; ARDL Bounds Testing Approach; Turkish Economy;
Other versions of this item:
- H. Bayram Irhan & Nur Dilbaz Alacahan & Levent Korap, 2011. "An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 14(1), pages 38-61, May.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-08-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2011-08-09 (Arab World)
- NEP-CWA-2011-08-09 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-INT-2011-08-09 (International Trade)
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