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The exchange rate and the balance of trade: The Turkish experience

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  • Josef Brada
  • Ali Kutan
  • Su Zhou

Abstract

In this article, we examine the responsiveness of Turkey's trade balance to devaluation accompanied by trade liberalisation. Our results show that the trade balance was responsive to changes in the exchange rate that were brought about by the economic reforms introduced in the 1980s, suggesting that exchange rate policy was able to create and maintain a satisfactory balance of trade position in the 1980s and early 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Brada & Ali Kutan & Su Zhou, 1997. "The exchange rate and the balance of trade: The Turkish experience," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 675-692.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:33:y:1997:i:5:p:675-692
    DOI: 10.1080/00220389708422489
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bela Balassa, 1985. "Change and Challenge in the World Economy," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-17991-6.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2009. "The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2523-2532.
    2. Zelal Kotan & Serdar Sayan, 2001. "A Comparison Of The Price Competitiveness Of Turkish And South East Asian Exports In The European Union Market In The 1990s," Discussion Papers 0102, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Khan, Zakir Saadullah & Hossain, M Ismail, 2010. "Democracy and Trade Balance: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 33(4), pages 23-37, December.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2010. "The J-curve: Malaysia versus her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(9), pages 1067-1076.
    5. Mehmet Yazici, 2008. "The Exchange Rate and the Trade Balances of Turkish Agriculture, Manufacturing and Mining," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 45-52, February.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2021. "The Turkey-US commodity trade and the asymmetric J-curve," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 943-973, November.
    7. Elif Akbostanci, 2002. "Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve," ERC Working Papers 0205, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised May 2002.
    8. Ferda Halicioglu, 2008. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2423-2429.
    9. Bilin Neyaptı & Fatma Taskın & Murat Ungor, 2007. "Has European Customs Union Agreement really affected Turkey's trade?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(16), pages 2121-2132.
    10. Kimbugwe, Hassan, 2006. "The bilateral J-Curve hypothesis between Turkey and her 9 trading partners," MPRA Paper 4254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Nazif Durmaz, 2020. "Asymmetric cointegration and the J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between Turkey and EU," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 757-792, November.
    12. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Real Exchange Rate and the Dynamics of Services Trade Balance in the UK: A Linear and Non-linear ARDL Analysis," MPRA Paper 106703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ernesto R. Gantman & Marcelo P. Dabós, 2018. "Does trade openness influence the real effective exchange rate? New evidence from panel time-series," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 91-113, March.
    14. Singh, Sukhbir & Jain, Kanchan & Sharma, Suresh, 2012. "Using stochastic prior information in consistent estimation of regression coefficients in replicated measurement error model," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 198-212.
    15. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hegerty, Scott W. & Kutan, Ali M., 2008. "Do nominal devaluations lead to real devaluations? Evidence from 89 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 644-670, October.
    16. H. Bayram Irhan & Nur Dilbaz Alacahan & Levent Korap, 2011. "An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 14(1), pages 38-61, May.
    17. Khuram Shafi & Liu Hua & Zahra Idrees & Amna Nazeer, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Macroeconomic War: A Comparative Study of India and Pakistan," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 257-269, January.
    18. Mehmet Yazici, 2010. "Is there a J-curve effect in Turkish services?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 167-172, January.
    19. Serdar Ongan & Huseyin Karamelikli & Mine Aysen Doyran & Ismet Gocer & Charles A. Rarick & John Mellon, 2023. "The Bilateral USA-Mexico Trade Balances Under Decomposed Export Data," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 171-186, December.
    20. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Is There a J-Curve Effect in the Services Trade in Canada? A Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 106704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
    22. Mohammad Naim Azimi & Mohammad Musa Shafiq, 2022. "The J-curve phenomenon in Afghanistan and its major trading partners: evidence from a non-linear ARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-28, July.
    23. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tatchawan Kantipong, 2001. "Bilateral J-Curve Between Thailand and Her Trading Partners," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 107-117, December.
    24. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Turkish bilateral trade balances," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 279-296.

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