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The J-Curve Dynamics of Turkey: An Application of ARDL Model

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  • Halicioglu, Ferda

Abstract

This article seeks an empirical evidence for the existence of the J-curve phenomenon both in the short-run and long-run for Turkey over the period 1980-2005. The bounds testing cointegration approach is employed to estimate the trade balance model. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented between trade balance, real effective exchange rates, foreign income and domestic income. The stability of the short-run as well as long-run coefficients in the trade balance model is tested too. The empirical results suggest that the J-curve phenomenon is supported only in the short-run. Whilst causality tests reveal mix results, the parameter stability tests seem to be inconclusive.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6824.

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Date of creation: 21 Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6824

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Keywords: J-curve; trade balance; cointegration; causality; stability tests; Turkey;

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References

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  1. Krueger,Anne O., 1983. "Exchange-Rate Determination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521273015, April.
  2. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2004. "The J-Curve: Evidence from Fiji," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 369-380.
  3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  4. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "A disaggregated approach to test the J-Curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 102-113, March.
  5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour G. Goswami & Bidyut Kumar Talukdar, 2005. "The Bilateral J-Curve: Australia Versus Her 23 Trading Partners," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 110-120, 06.
  6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
  7. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
  9. Josef Brada & Ali Kutan & Su Zhou, 1997. "The exchange rate and the balance of trade: The Turkish experience," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 675-692.
  10. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
  11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March.
  12. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  14. Faruk Selcuk, 1997. "A Brief Account of the Turkish Economy, 1987-1996," Departmental Working Papers 971, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Janardhanan Alse, 1994. "Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation: Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 453-464, Fall.
  16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2007. "The S-curve Dynamics of US Bilateral Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 430-439, 05.
  17. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2004. "The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 777-799, December.
  18. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  19. Cem Akyurek, 2006. "The Turkish Crisis of 2001: A Classic?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 42(1), pages 5-32, February.
  20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-a-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888.
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Cited by:
  1. Ferda Halicioglu, 2013. "Dynamics of obesity in Finland," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 644 - 657, September.
  2. Jamilov, Rustam, 2013. "Capital mobility in the Caucasus," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 155-170.
  3. Muhammad ASIF & Kashif RASHID, 2011. "Impact of Devaluation on Trade Balance in Pakistan," Oeconomics of Knowledge, Saphira Publishing House, vol. 3(3), pages 16-25, July.
  4. Manuel CANTAVELLA-JORDA & Sheila Amin GUTIERREZ DE PIÑERES, 2012. "A Cross-national Panel Study of Devaluations on Disaggregated Export Sectors: A Case for Sector Specific Policies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(2).

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