The J-Curve Dynamics of Turkey: An Application of ARDL Model
AbstractThis article seeks an empirical evidence for the existence of the J-curve phenomenon both in the short-run and long-run for Turkey over the period 1980-2005. The bounds testing cointegration approach is employed to estimate the trade balance model. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented between trade balance, real effective exchange rates, foreign income and domestic income. The stability of the short-run as well as long-run coefficients in the trade balance model is tested too. The empirical results suggest that the J-curve phenomenon is supported only in the short-run. Whilst causality tests reveal mix results, the parameter stability tests seem to be inconclusive.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6824.
Date of creation: 21 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
J-curve; trade balance; cointegration; causality; stability tests; Turkey;
Other versions of this item:
- Ferda Halicioglu, 2008. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2423-2429.
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
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