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The S-curve Dynamics of US Bilateral Trade

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Author Info

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Artatrana Ratha

Abstract

A few studies in dynamic general-equilibrium setting have argued that the trade balance is negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade but positively correlated with past movements, hence the S-curve phenomenon. Using aggregate trade data and the terms of trade has not provided strong empirical counterpart. However, in this paper, when we disaggregate the trade data between the US and her trading partners we find stronger results in support of the S-curve. Copyright � 2007 The Authors; Journal compilation � 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 15 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
Pages: 430-439

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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:15:y:2007:i:2:p:430-439

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576

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Cited by:
  1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2010. "S-Curve dynamics of trade between U.S. and China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 212-223, June.
  2. Jamilov, Rustam, 2013. "Capital mobility in the Caucasus," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 155-170.
  3. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The J-Curve Dynamics of Turkey: An Application of ARDL Model," MPRA Paper 6824, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
  5. Amit Ghosh, 2012. "Is there an S-curve relationship between U.S. trade balance and terms of trade? An analysis across industries and countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 325-337.
  6. Jamilov, Rustam, 2012. "Is There a J-curve for Azerbaijan? Evidence from Industry-Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 39370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Gour Gobinda Goswami & Sadaquat Junayed, 2006. "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of the Bilateral Trade Balance Equation: USA vis-a-vis her Trading Partners," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 515-526.
  8. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "Does J-curve phenomenon exist in case of Laos? An ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 833-839.
  9. Jamilov, Rustam, 2011. "J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall-Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 36799, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2012.
  10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2008. "The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 207-225, July.
  11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2010. "The J- and S-curves: a survey of the recent literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 580-596, September.
  12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2011. "S-curve dynamics of trade between Sweden and her trading partners," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 355-362, September.
  13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Dan Xi, 2012. "China-Germany commodity trade and the S-curve," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 20-28, February.
  14. Dmitriev, Alexandre & Roberts, Ivan, 2013. "The cost of adjustment: On comovement between the trade balance and the terms of trade," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 689-700.
  15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2011. "How Sensitive is U.S.-Canadian Trade to the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Industry Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 53-91, February.
  16. Huiran Pan, 2013. "Asset Revaluation And Trade Balance Under Liability Dollarization: The Case Of South Korea," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 1-32, September.
  17. Kanchana Senanayake Amarasingha Appuhamilage & Ahmed Abdulhusain Ali Alhayky, 2010. "Exchange rate movements' effect on Sri Lanka-China trade," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 254-267, December.
  18. Kimbugwe, Hassan, 2006. "The bilateral J-Curve hypothesis between Turkey and her 9 trading partners," MPRA Paper 4254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Mohsen Bahmani-oskooee & Hadise Fariditavana, 2014. "Do Exchange Rate Changes have Symmetric Effect on the S-Curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 164-173.

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