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Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation: Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration

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Author Info
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee (University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee)
Janardhanan Alse (Indiana University, Southeast)

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Abstract

After identifying shortcomings associated with most previous studies on the relation between the trade balance and the exchange rate, we reexamine the statistical relation between these two variables by employing the cointegration and error-correction modeling techniques. For most countries considered, we do not find evidence of a long-run relation between the trade balance and the exchange rate. Results from error-correction modeling provide some support for the short-run relation and the J-Curve phenomenon.

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File URL: http://college.holycross.edu/eej/Volume20/V20N4P453_464.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Eastern Economic Association in its journal Eastern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 20 (1994)
Issue (Month): 4 (Fall)
Pages: 453-464
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Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:20:y:1994:i:4:p:453-464

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Related research
Keywords: Devaluation; Exchange Rates;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

Cited by:
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  1. Kausik Chaudhuri, 2000. "Is Devaluation working? Evidence from India in phase of Economic Liberalization," Working Papers 2000-1, University of Sydney, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour G. Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-à-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Swarnjit Arora & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "Bilateral J-curve between India and her trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1037-1041, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "Deflation: Prevention and Cure," NBER Working Papers 9623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Hassan Shirvani & Barry Wilbratte, 1997. "The Relationship Between The Real Exchange Rate And The Trade Balance: An Empirical Reassessment," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 39-50, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "The Bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 Trading Partners," MPRA Paper 3564, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Hooy, Chee Wooi & Chan, Tze-Haw, 2008. "The Impact of Yuan/Ringgit on Bilateral Trade Balance of China and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 11306, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  9. Hernán Rincón, . "Testing the Short-Long-Run Exchange Rate Effects on Trade Balance: The Case of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 120, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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