The Bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 Trading Partners
AbstractThis study empirically analyses bilateral J-curve dynamics of Turkey with her thirteen trading partners using quarterly time series data over the period 1985-2005. Previous studies on the J-curve of Turkey are based on only aggregate data and they reveal mixed results. Short and long-run impacts of the depreciation of Turkish lira on the trade balance between Turkey and her thirteen trading partners are estimated from the bound testing approach and error correction modeling. The empirical results indicate that whilst there is no J-curve effect in the short-run, but in the long-run, the real depreciation of the Turkish lira has positive impact on Turkey’s trade balance in couple of countries. The stability of the long-run trade balance equations is also checked through CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3564.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
J-curve; co-integration; stability tests; Turkey;
Other versions of this item:
- Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-06-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2007-06-23 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-INT-2007-06-23 (International Trade)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2005:i:10:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
- H. W. Arndt & G. Dorrance, 1987. "The J-Curve," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 20(1), pages 9-19.
- Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
- Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2004. "New Zealand's trade balance: evidence of the J-curve and granger causality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 351-354.
- Krueger,Anne O., 1983. "Exchange-Rate Determination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521273015, October.
- R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2004. "The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 777-799, December.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2007. "The S-curve Dynamics of US Bilateral Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 430-439, 05.
- Jeroen J.M. Kremers & Neil R. Ericsson & Juan J. Dolado, 1992.
"The power of cointegration tests,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
431, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Dolado, Juan José & Ericsson, N.R. & Kremers, J.J.M., 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/3319, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-a-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2004. "The J-Curve: Evidence from Fiji," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 369-380.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Malixi, Margaret, 1992. "More evidence on the J curve from LDCs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-653, October.
- Elif Akbostanci, 2004. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance: The Turkish J-Curve," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(5), pages 57-73, September.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour G. Goswami & Bidyut Kumar Talukdar, 2005. "The Bilateral J-Curve: Australia Versus Her 23 Trading Partners," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 110-120, 06.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2003:i:18:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
- Josef Brada & Ali Kutan & Su Zhou, 1997. "The exchange rate and the balance of trade: The Turkish experience," The Journal of Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 675-692.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2006. "The J Curve: China Versus Her Trading Partners," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 323-343, October.
- Swarnjit Arora & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "Bilateral J-curve between India and her trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1037-1041.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Janardhanan Alse, 1994. "Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation: Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 453-464, Fall.
- Cem Akyurek, 2006. "The Turkish Crisis of 2001: A Classic?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 42(1), pages 5-32, February.
- Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "India's trade with USA and her trade balance: An empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 29023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Salah Uddin, Gazi, 2013.
"Does J-Curve Phenomenon Exist in Case of Laos? An ARDL Approach,"
48084, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jul 2013.
- Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Salah Uddin, Gazi, 2013. "Does J-Curve Phenomenon Exist in Case of Laos? An ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 49052, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Aug 2013.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2010. "The J- and S-curves: a survey of the recent literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 580-596, September.
- Shahbaz, Muhammad & Jalil, Abdul & Islam, Faridul, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Revisit," MPRA Paper 27631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Muhammad, Shahbaz & Faridul, Islam & Naveed, Aamir, 2011.
"Is devaluation contractionary? empirical evidence for Pakistan,"
32520, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2011.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Naveed Aamir, 2012. "Is devaluation contractionary? Empirical evidence for Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 299-316, November.
- Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
- Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "An Error-Correction Analysis Of India-Us Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 29-51, March.
- Wang, Chun-Hsuan & Lin, Chun-Hung A. & Yang, Chih-Hai, 2012. "Short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate change on trade balance: Evidence from China and its trading partners," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 266-273.
- Natalya Ketenci & Idil Uz, 2011. "Bilateral and regional trade elasticities of the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 839-854, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.