The Bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 Trading Partners
AbstractThis study empirically analyses bilateral J-curve dynamics of Turkey with her thirteen trading partners using quarterly time series data over the period 1985-2005. Previous studies on the J-curve of Turkey are based on only aggregate data and they reveal mixed results. Short and long-run impacts of the depreciation of Turkish lira on the trade balance between Turkey and her thirteen trading partners are estimated from the bound testing approach and error correction modeling. The empirical results indicate that whilst there is no J-curve effect in the short-run, but in the long-run, the real depreciation of the Turkish lira has positive impact on Turkey’s trade balance in couple of countries. The stability of the long-run trade balance equations is also checked through CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3564.
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
J-curve; co-integration; stability tests; Turkey;
Other versions of this item:
- Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-06-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CWA-2007-06-23 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-INT-2007-06-23 (International Trade)
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