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The Bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 Trading Partners

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  • Halicioglu, Ferda

Abstract

This study empirically analyses bilateral J-curve dynamics of Turkey with her thirteen trading partners using quarterly time series data over the period 1985-2005. Previous studies on the J-curve of Turkey are based on only aggregate data and they reveal mixed results. Short and long-run impacts of the depreciation of Turkish lira on the trade balance between Turkey and her thirteen trading partners are estimated from the bound testing approach and error correction modeling. The empirical results indicate that whilst there is no J-curve effect in the short-run, but in the long-run, the real depreciation of the Turkish lira has positive impact on Turkey’s trade balance in couple of countries. The stability of the long-run trade balance equations is also checked through CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3564.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3564

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Keywords: J-curve; co-integration; stability tests; Turkey;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
  2. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "An Error-Correction Analysis Of India-Us Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 29-51, March.
  3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2010. "The J- and S-curves: a survey of the recent literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 580-596, September.
  4. Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "India's trade with USA and her trade balance: An empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 29023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Jalil, Abdul & Islam, Faridul, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Revisit," MPRA Paper 27631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Natalya Ketenci & Idil Uz, 2011. "Bilateral and regional trade elasticities of the EU," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 839-854, May.
  7. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Salah Uddin, Gazi, 2013. "Does J-Curve Phenomenon Exist in Case of Laos? An ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 49052, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Aug 2013.
  8. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Naveed Aamir, 2012. "Is devaluation contractionary? Empirical evidence for Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 299-316, November.
  9. Wang, Chun-Hsuan & Lin, Chun-Hung A. & Yang, Chih-Hai, 2012. "Short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate change on trade balance: Evidence from China and its trading partners," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 266-273.

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