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The Bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 Trading Partners

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Author Info
Halicioglu, Ferda

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Abstract

This study empirically analyses bilateral J-curve dynamics of Turkey with her thirteen trading partners using quarterly time series data over the period 1985-2005. Previous studies on the J-curve of Turkey are based on only aggregate data and they reveal mixed results. Short and long-run impacts of the depreciation of Turkish lira on the trade balance between Turkey and her thirteen trading partners are estimated from the bound testing approach and error correction modeling. The empirical results indicate that whilst there is no J-curve effect in the short-run, but in the long-run, the real depreciation of the Turkish lira has positive impact on Turkey’s trade balance in couple of countries. The stability of the long-run trade balance equations is also checked through CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3564/
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 3564.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3564

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Related research
Keywords: J-curve; co-integration; stability tests; Turkey;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade

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  1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Janardhanan Alse, 1994. "Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation: Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 453-464, Fall. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour G. Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-à-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour G. Goswami & Bidyut Kumar Talukdar, 2005. "The Bilateral J-Curve: Australia Versus Her 23 Trading Partners," Australian Economic Papers, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2), pages 110-120, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Swarnjit Arora & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "Bilateral J-curve between India and her trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1037-1041, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2006. "The J Curve: China Versus Her Trading Partners," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 323-343, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Malixi, Margaret, 1992. "More evidence on the J curve from LDCs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-653, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
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  12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Elif Akbostanci, 2004. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance: The Turkish J-Curve," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(5), pages 57-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2004. "The J -Curve: Evidence from Fiji," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 369-380, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2004. "New Zealand's trade balance: evidence of the J-curve and granger causality," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 351-354, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2004. "The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(4), pages 777-799, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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