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The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run

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  • R. Scott Hacker
  • Abdulnasser Hatemi-J

Abstract

Using generalized impulse response functions, this study tests for the trade J-curve for three transitional central European countries - the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland - in their bilateral trade with respect to Germany. Our findings suggest that for each country there are some characteristics associated with a J-curve effect: after a (real or nominal) depreciation the export-to-import ratio briefly drops to below its initial value within a few months and then rises to a long run equilibrium value higher than the initial one. Copyright (c) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 2004.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in its journal The Economics of Transition.

Volume (Year): 12 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 777-799

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Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:12:y:2004:i:4:p:777-799

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Cited by:
  1. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 236-243, June.
  2. Ferda Halicioglu, 2008. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2423-2429.
  3. Jamilov, Rustam, 2011. "J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall-Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 36799, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2012.
  4. Chiu, Yi-Bin & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Sun, Chia-Hung, 2010. "The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 705-716, May.
  5. Ivrendi, Mehmet & Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks and macroeconomic variables: Evidence from fast growing emerging economies," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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