Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve
AbstractThe J-curve hypothesis suggests a specific pattern for the response of trade balance to real exchange rate changes: a real depreciation initially worsens the trade balance, but through time the trade balance improves, and thus the response of the trade balance over time generates a tilted J shape. This study investigates the existence of a J-curve in the Turkish data in the period of 1987-2000, by using quarterly data. First an error correction model is estimated to differentiate between the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics. Then the response of trade balance to real exchange rate shocks are investigated by using the generalized impulse response methodology. Even though the suggested long-run pattern, which is the improvement of the trade balance in response to a real depreciation emerges, our results do not exactly support the J-curve hypothesis in the short-run. In this study we found that the short-run behavior of the trade balance in response to real exchange rate shocks show an S-pattern reminiscent of the Backus et al (1994) rather than the J-curve pattern.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University in its series ERC Working Papers with number 0205.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: May 2002
Date of revision: May 2002
J-Curve; trade balance; Marshall-Lerner condition; cointegration; impulse response analysis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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