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Current Accounts and Exchange Rates: A New Look at the Evidence

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  • Greg Leonard
  • Alan C. Stockman

Abstract

This paper 'goes back to basics' in empirical analysis of the J-Curve. First, we document strong violations in the distributional assumptions that underlie nearly all previous work on this issue. Second, we employ distribution-free, non-parametric statistical tests to characterize the data and summarize the key relationships between real exchange rates, the current account, and real GDP. We find some (weak) evidence of a J-Curve in the data. Interestingly, however, we document that this evidence is not consistent with the standard theoretical explanation of the J-Curve. Consequently, our empirical results pose a strong challenge for international economic theory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8361.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8361

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  1. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
  2. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1991. "International real business cycles," Staff Report 146, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
  4. Moffett, Michael H., 1989. "The J-curve revisited: an empirical examination for the United States," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 425-444, September.
  5. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
  6. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Cavallo, Michele & Ghironi, Fabio, 2002. "Net foreign assets and the exchange rate: Redux revived," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1057-1097, July.
  2. Olivier, CARDI, 2005. "Another View of the J-Curve," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005029, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Charikleia Economidou & Gour Goswami, 2006. "Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-a-vis her major trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 879-888.
  4. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "The Costs to Consumers of a Depreciated Conversion Rate to the Euro," MPRA Paper 5723, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Jens R Clausen & Magda Kandil, 2009. "On Cyclicality in the Current and Financial Accounts: Evidence from Nine Industrial Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(3), pages 338-366.
  6. Elif Akbostanci, 2002. "Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J-curve," ERC Working Papers 0205, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised May 2002.
  7. Arghyrou, Michael G & Chortareas, Georgios, 2006. "Current Account Imbalances and Real Exchange Rates in the Euro Area," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2006/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  8. Ahmad, A. H. & Pentecost, E. J., 2012. "The Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in African Countries," Department of Economics Working Papers 32981, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
  9. Theo Panagiotidis & Mark J Holmes, 2005. "Sustainability and Asymmetric Adjustment: Some New Evidence Concerning Behaviour of the US Current Account," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  10. Olugbenga Onafowora, 2003. "Exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a J-curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(18), pages 1-13.
  11. Mohamed Arouri & Arif Billah Dar & Niyati Bhanja & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & FrédéricTeulon, 2014. "Interlinkage between Real Exchange rate and Current Account Behaviors: Evidence from India," Working Papers 2014-088, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  12. Chayawadee Chai-anant & Ubonrat Jantarang, 2004. "Current Account Adjustment and Policy Instrument Responsiveness," Working Papers 2004-04, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2003:i:18:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. CARDI, Oliver & BERTINELLI, Luisito, 2004. "A formal model of krugman’s intuition on the J-curve," CORE Discussion Papers 2004043, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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