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The Costs to Consumers of a Depreciated Conversion Rate to the Euro

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Author Info
Marques, Luis B

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Abstract

This paper measures the welfare cost to consumers of the bloc of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC), plus Malta and Cyprus, of choosing a de- preciated conversion rate when joining the European Monetary Union. For this, I present and solve an appropriately calibrated small open economy model where a euro-denominated bond and the equity on a traded goods sector are traded internationally. I show that the cost of depreciating the domestic currency against the euro by 20%, at the time of joining the European Monetary Union, entails a cost of approximately 1.65% in terms of lost lifetime utility (measured in equivalent units of consumption).

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5723.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5723

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Related research
Keywords: trade effect valuation effect wealth effect exchange rate.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  1. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Mendoza, Enrique G, 2001. "The Benefits of Dollarization When Stabilization Policy Lacks Credibility and Financial Markets Are Imperfect," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 440-74, May.
    Other versions:
  3. Balázs Égert, & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp793, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 06/188, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Gabriel Fagan & Vítor Gaspar, 2007. "Adjusting to the euro," Working Paper Series 716, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Thomas F. Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2001. "The costs of losing monetary independence: the case of Mexico," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 370-403.
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  7. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2002-2), pages 147-210. [Downloadable!]
  9. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "Welfare Implications of Exchange Rate Changes," MPRA Paper 5721, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Jörg Rahn, 2003. "Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the EU Accession Countries against the Euro," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20306, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Leonard, Greg & Stockman, Alan C, 2002. "Current Accounts and Exchange Rates: A New Look at the Evidence," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 483-96, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Paulo Flavio Nacif Drummond & Zuzana Murgasova & Susan Schadler & Rachel van Elkan & Louis Kuijs, 2005. "Adopting the Euro in Central Europe: Challenges of the Next Step in European Integration," IMF Occasional Papers 234, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Cardi, Olivier, 2007. "Another View Of The J-Curve," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 153-174, March. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(2005-1), pages 67-146. [Downloadable!]
  17. Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2004. "Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows, and Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 10476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Ales Bulir & Katerina Smidkova, 2004. "Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries: What Have We Learned from the Forerunners," Working Papers 2004/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Stockman, Alan C. & Dellas, Harris, 1989. "International portfolio nondiversification and exchange rate variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 271-289, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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