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Can Portfolio Rebalancing Explain the Dynamics of Equity Returns, Equity Flows and Exchange Rates?

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Author Info
Hau, Harald
Rey, Hélène

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Abstract

We explore whether the pattern of international equity returns, equity portfolio flows, and exchange rate returns are consistent with the hypothesis that (unhedged) global investors rebalance their portfolio in order to limit their exchange rate exposure when there are (1) relative equity return; and (2) exchange rate shocks. We also explore whether (3) equity flow shocks influence the exchange rates and relative equity prices. In the estimation of the VAR system we do not impose any causal ordering upon the primitive shocks, but instead identify the system based on theoretical priors about the contemporaneous conditional correlations between the three variables. International data for the five largest equity markets are consistent with a theory in which equity returns and portfolio rebalancing are an important source of exchange rate dynamics.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4517.

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Date of creation: Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4517

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Keywords: F37; international finance;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 9834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Harald Hau & William Killeen & Michael Moore, 2002. "How has the euro changed the foreign exchange market?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 17(34), pages 149-192, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, January.
  7. William P. Killeen & Richard K. Lyons & Michael J. Moore, 2001. "Fixed versus Flexible: Lessons from EMS Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 8491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2002. "Currency Returns, Institutional Investor Flows, and Exchange Rate Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 9080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 9433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2002. "Exchange Rate, Equity Prices and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 9398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hau, Harald & Massa, Massimo & Peress, Joël, 2005. "Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 4862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes & Gregorios Siourounis, 2006. "Optimal Currency Shares in International Reserves: The Impact of the Euro and the Prospects for the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 12333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep16 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "The Costs to Consumers of a Depreciated Conversion Rate to the Euro," MPRA Paper 5723, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Elizaveta Krylova & Lorenzo Cappiello & Roberto A. De Santis, 2005. "Explaining exchange rate dynamics - the uncovered equity return parity condition," Working Paper Series 529, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. John. Cochrane & Francis Longstaff & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2003. "Two Trees: Asset Price Dynamics Induced By Market Clearing," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1248, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Chayawadee Chai-Anant & Corinna Ho, 2008. "Understanding Asian equity flows, market returns and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 245, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  8. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp079, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Roberto A. De Santis & Lucio Sarno, 2008. "Assessing the benefits of international portfolio diversification in bonds and stocks," Working Paper Series 883, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Haselmann, Rainer & Helmut, Herwartz, 2005. "The Introduction of the Euro and its Effects on Investment Decisions," Economics Working Papers 2005,15, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Martin D. D. Evans & Viktoria Hnatkovska, 2005. "International Capital Flows, Returns and World Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 11701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "Welfare Implications of Exchange Rate Changes," MPRA Paper 5721, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  13. Akito Matsumoto & Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani & Alessandro Rebucci, 2008. "New Shocks, Exchange Rates and EquityPrices," IMF Working Papers 08/284, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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