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Welfare Implications of Exchange Rate Changes

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Author Info
Marques, Luis B

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Abstract

This paper measures the welfare implications of a depreciation of the US dollar against the euro using a dynamic equilibrium model. I calibrate a simple two country stochastic endowment economy with trade in goods and financial assets and exogenous variations in the exchange rate. The model displays both a trade channel effect and an asset channel effect after a change in the value of the exchange rate. The welfare loss coming from the trade channel translates into the relatively higher price that consumers have to pay for imports. The asset channel effect arises from three sources. One is the traditional valuation effect associated with US debt being denominated mostly in dollars. The other two novel effects are: (1) the dollar value of investors net worth, mostly denominated in local currency, increases more in Europe than in the US; (2) asset prices change, causing a portfolio rebalancing effect which results in a fall in the share of world assets owned by the US. I show that a dollar depreciation has potentially large negative welfare effects as measured by the net present value of future consumption. After a temporary 10% depreciation of the dollar, with a half-life of one year, I calculate a 0.25% decrease in lifetime aggregate consumption for the US consumer.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5721.

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Date of creation: Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5721

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Related research
Keywords: trade effect valuation effect wealth effect exchange rate dynamic equilibrium model welfare.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  1. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "The Costs to Consumers of a Depreciated Conversion Rate to the Euro," MPRA Paper 5723, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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