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Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures

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Author Info
Philip Lane
Jay C. Shambaugh

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Abstract

Our goal in this project is to gain a better empirical understanding of the international financial implications of currency movements. To this end, we construct a database of international currency exposures for a large panel of countries over 1990-2004. We show that trade-weighted exchange rate indices are insufficient to understand the financial impact of currency movements. Further, we demonstrate that many developing countries hold short foreign-currency positions, leaving them open to negative valuation effects when the domestic currency depreciates. However, we also show that many of these countries have substantially reduced their foreign currency exposure over the last decade. Last, we show that our currency measure has high explanatory power for the valuation term in net foreign asset dynamics: exchange rate valuation shocks are sizable, not quickly reversed and may entail substantial wealth shocks.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13433.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13433

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," NBER Working Papers 12489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Maurice Obstfeld, 2004. "External Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 10843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Devereux, Michael B. & Lane, Philip R., 2003. "Understanding bilateral exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 109-132, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Richard Portes & Helene Rey, 1999. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows," NBER Working Papers 7336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. John Y. Campbell & Karine Serfaty-de Medeiros & Luis M. Viceira, 2007. "Global Currency Hedging," NBER Working Papers 13088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C, 2008. "The Long or Short of it: Determinants of Foreign Currency Exposure in External Balance Sheets," CEPR Discussion Papers 6887, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane & Juanyi Xu, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 478-506, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Charles Engel & Akito Matsumoto, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in a Monetary Open-Economy DSGE Model," IMF Working Papers 05/165, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 300-351, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. André Faria & Philip R. Lane & Paolo Mauro & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "The Shifting Composition of External Liabilities," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp190, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and The Exorbitant Privilege," CEPR Discussion Papers 5220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Donald J. Mathieson & Barry J. Eichengreen, 2000. "The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves - Retrospect and Prospect," IMF Working Papers 00/131, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 273-317. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2007. "Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Merchantilism," NBER Working Papers 13123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Devereux, Michael B & Saito, Makoto, 2006. "A Portfolio Theory of International Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 5746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2007. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1139-1180. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Cedric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jan. [Downloadable!]
  19. Ewe-Ghee Lim, 2006. "The Euro's Challenge to the Dollar: Different Views from Economists and Evidence from COFER (Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves) and Other Data," IMF Working Papers 06/153, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  20. Cédric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2007. "International capital flows," Staff Reports 280, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "How Might a Disorderly Resolution of Global Imbalances Affect Global Wealth?," IMF Working Papers 06/170, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  22. Chris Becker & Daniel Fabbro, 2006. "Limiting Foreign Exchange Exposure through Hedging: The Australian Experience," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-09, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  23. Edwin M. Truman & Anna Wong, 2006. "The Case for an International Reserve Diversification Standard," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP06-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  24. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Hélène, 1999. "Financial Super-Markets: Size Matters for Asset Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2232, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Philip R. Lane & G.M. Milesi-Ferretti, 2003. "International Financial Integration," Trinity Economics Papers 20031, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Devereux, Michael B & Sutherland, Alan, 2006. "Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5966, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2005. "Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 05/3, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Philip R. Lane, 2008. "EMU and Financial Market Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp248, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael Bleaney, & Liliana Castilleja Vargas, . "Real Exchange Rates, Valuation Effects and Growth in Emerging Markets," Discussion Papers 07/12, University of Nottingham, CREDIT. [Downloadable!]
  3. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert & Martin, Philippe, 2007. "International Portfolios with Supply, Demand and Redistributive Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6482, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Roland Beck & Ebrahim Rahbari, 2008. "Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops - the euro and the dollar as safe haven currencies," Working Paper Series 916, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C, 2008. "The Long or Short of it: Determinants of Foreign Currency Exposure in External Balance Sheets," CEPR Discussion Papers 6887, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Philip R. Lane, 2008. "EMU and Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp272, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  7. Philip R. Lane, 2008. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Integration: A European Perspective," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp265, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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