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Perspectives on OECD Economic Integration: Implications for US Current Account Adjustment

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Author Info
Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff.

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Abstract

Abstract : The US current account deficit has been persistently large and has brought the country's ratio of foreign debt to GDP to 20%, a figure that is high by historical standards. This paper argues that while US solvency is not a near-term constraint on ongoing deficits, the sheer size of the US economy makes it likely that its current account will have to approach balance in the next five to ten years, if not sooner. The paper surveys a wide body of evidence suggesting that the US economy remains surprisingly closed to external trade in products and capital, and suggests that costs of international trade in goods can explain the evidence. Given the trade costs, a substantial real depreciation of the dollar will be needed to close the US current account gap. If current-account adjustment is gradual, then the medium-term depreciation of the dollar would be on the order of 12%. If the current account deficit is eliminated in a precipitous and disorderly fashion, and the Fed attempts to maintain full employment, the depreciation could be much bigger, even on the order of 40% to 50%.

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Paper provided by University of California at Berkeley in its series Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers with number C00-116.

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Date of creation: 01 Sep 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ucb:calbcd:c00-116

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Charles Freedman, 1979. "A Note on Net Interest Payments to Foreigners under Inflationary Conditions," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 12(2), pages 291-99, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1991. "Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: explaining international co-movements," Working Paper 9019, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1980. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations - Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/115, International Monetary Fund.
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  9. James E. Anderson & J. Peter Neary, 1998. "The Mercantilist Index of Trade Policy," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 416, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  11. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Salim M. Darbar & Parha Deb, 1999. "Linkages Among Asset Markets in the United States - Tests in a Bivariate GARCH Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/158, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2001. "Globalization and History: The Evolution of a Nineteenth-Century Atlantic Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262650592.
  14. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Working Papers 96-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
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  15. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Reinhart, Carmen & Ostry, Jonathan, 1991. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks," MPRA Paper 13716, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  17. Paul R. Krugman, 1985. "Is the strong dollar sustainable?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 103-155.
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