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Long-Term Capital Movements

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Author Info
Lane, Philip R.
Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria

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Abstract

International financial integration allows countries to become net creditors or net debtors with respect to the rest of the world. In this Paper, we show that a small set of fundamentals shifts in relative output levels, the stock of public debt and demographic factors can do much to explain the evolution of net foreign asset positions. In addition, we highlight that ‘external wealth’ plays a critical role in determining the behavior of the trade balance, both through shifts in the desired net foreign asset position and the investment returns generated on the outstanding stock of net foreign assets. Finally, we provide some evidence that a portfolio balance effect exists: real interest rate differentials are inversely related to net foreign asset positions.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2873.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2873

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Related research
Keywords: capital flows; net foreign assets; portfolio balance; trade balance;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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  1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christopher D. Carroll & Jody Overland & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1980. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Masson, Paul R. & Kremers, Jeroen & Horne, Jocelyn, 1994. "Net foreign assets and international adjustment: The United States, Japan and Germany," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1999. "Trade surpluses and life-cycle saving behaviour," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 227-237, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Halevi, Nadav, 1971. "An empirical test of the balance of payments stages hypothesis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 103-117, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Bayoumi, Tamim & Gagnon, Joseph, 1996. "Taxation and inflation: A new explanation for capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 303-330, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
  15. Sebastian Edwards, 2001. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2005. "Country Portfolios," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(4), pages 914-945, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Alan M. Taylor, 1994. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 4892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Rebelo, Sérgio, 1992. "Growth in Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 667, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
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  21. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton, 2000. "Life-Cycles, Dynasties, Savings: Implications for Closed and Small, Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/126, International Monetary Fund.
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