Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

What Drives Long-term Capital Flows? A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation

Contents:

Author Info

  • Genevieve Verdier

Abstract

What drives capital inflows in the long run? Do they follow the predictions of neoclassical theory, or are other forces at work? The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how long-term capital movements conform surprisingly well to the predictions of a simple neoclassical model with credit constraints. The most surprising prediction of this class of models is that, contrary to a pure neoclassical model, domestic savings should act as a complement rather than a substitute to capital inflows. Nevertheless, this class of models keeps the neoclassical prediction that, ceteris paribus, capital should flow to the countries where it is most scarce. Using data on net foreign liabilities over the 1970 to 1997 period, I find evidence that supports these predictions.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/mac/papers/0310/0310011.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0310011.

as in new window
Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 14 Oct 2003
Date of revision: 14 Jul 2005
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0310011

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on Win98; pages: 50; figures: 11
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: credit constraints; net external debt; capital flows; savings; convergence;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Cohen, Daniel & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1986. "Growth and external debt under risk of debt repudiation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 529-560, June.
  3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
  4. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
  5. Robert J. Barro & N. Gregory Mankiw & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1994. "Capital mobility in Neoclassical models of growth," Economics Working Papers 82, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  6. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
  9. Martin Feldstein, 1994. "Tax Policy and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 4851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Masson, Paul R. & Kremers, Jeroen & Horne, Jocelyn, 1994. "Net foreign assets and international adjustment: The United States, Japan and Germany," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-40, February.
  11. Lane Philip R., 2004. "Empirical Perspectives on Long-Term External Debt," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, January.
  12. Jerome Adda & Jonathan Eaton, 1998. "Borrowing iwth Unobserved Liquidity Constraints: Structural Estimation with an Application to Sovereign Debt," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 84, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
  13. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  14. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," CEPR Discussion Papers 2873, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. "Long-Term Capital Movements," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 73-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  16. Lane, Philip R, 2001. "International Trade and Economic Convergence: The Credit Channel," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 221-40, April.
  17. Masson, Paul R & Bayoumi, Tamim & Samiei, Hossein, 1998. "International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 483-501, September.
  18. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  19. Ben S. Bernanke & Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2002. "Is Growth Exogenous? Taking Mankiw, Romer, and Weil Seriously," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Gertler, Mark & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "North-South lending and endogenous domestic capital market inefficiencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 245-266, October.
  21. Petr Duczynski, 2000. "Capital Mobility in NeoClassical Models of Growth: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 687-694, June.
  22. Rebelo, Sergio, 1992. "Growth in open economies," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 5-46, July.
  23. Kremer, Michael & Thomson, James, 1998. " Why Isn't Convergence Instantaneous? Young Workers, Old Workers, and Gradual Adjustment," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 5-28, March.
  24. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
  25. Calderon, Cesar & Loayza, Norman & Serven, Luis, 2000. "External sustainability : a stock equilibrium perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2281, The World Bank.
  26. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," Trinity Economics Papers 20014, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  27. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
  28. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "International Comparisons of Educational Attainment," NBER Working Papers 4349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2005. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 11901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Peter Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Coakley, Jerry & Kulasi, Farida & Smith, Ron, 1998. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Capital Mobility: A Review," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 169-88, April.
  32. Duczynski, Petr, 2002. "Adjustment costs in a two-capital growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 837-850, May.
  33. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
  34. Chadha, Jagjit S & Dimsdale, Nicholas H, 1999. "A Long View of Real Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 17-45, Summer.
  35. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  36. James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Bootstrap inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November.
  37. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  38. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Annageldy Arazmuradov & Gianmaria Martini & Davide Scotti, 2011. "Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in Former Soviet Union Economies: A Stochastic Frontier Approach," Working Papers 1105, Department of Economics and Technology Management, University of Bergamo.
  2. Luca Antonio Ricci & Thierry Tressel & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "International Capital Flows and Development," IMF Working Papers 10/235, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Fernando Arias & Daira Garrido & Daniel Parra & Hernán Rincón, 2012. "¿Responden los diferentes tipos de flujos de capitales a los mismos fundamentos y en el mismo grado? Evidencia reciente para países emergentes," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009764, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Reinhardt, Dennis & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "International capital flows and development: financial openness matters," Bank of England working papers 472, Bank of England.
  5. Ding, Ding & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2012. "Development threshold, capital flows, and financial turbulence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 365-385.
  6. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "La these de Feldstein-Horioka: une mesure de la mobilité internationale du capital," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 54(1), pages 53-67, March.
  7. Gilad Aharonovitz & James Miller, 2008. "Are Net FDI Flows and Reversals of Capital Flows a Result of Output Growth?," Working Papers 2009-05, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
  8. Bélyácz, Iván & Kuti, Mónika, 2009. "Külföldi működőtőke és külső eladósodás. Kísérlet a makrogazdasági tőkestruktúra új szempontú vizsgálatára
    [Foreign operating capital and foreign indebtedness. An attempt to exa
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 133-154.
  9. Lipschitz, Leslie & Rochon, Céline & Verdier, Geneviève, 2011. "A real model of transitional growth and competitiveness in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 267-283, August.
  10. Abdul Karim, Zulkefly & Zaidi, Mohd Azlan Shah & Ismail, Mohd Adib & Abdul Karim, Bakri, 2011. "Institutions and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Malaysia: empirical evidence using ARDL model," MPRA Paper 31899, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0310011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.