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External sustainability : a stock equilibrium perspective

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Author Info

  • Calderon, Cesar
  • Loayza, Norman
  • Serven, Luis

Abstract

The authors consider external sustainability from the perspective of equilibrium in net foreign asset positions. Under their approach, an external situation is sustainable if it is consistent with international and domestic investors'achieving their desired portfolio allocation across countries. They develop a reduced-form model of net foreign asset positions whose long-run equilibrium condition expresses the ratio of net foreign assets to the total wealth of domestic residents as a negative function of investment returns in the country relative to the rest of the world, a positive function of investment risk, and an inverse function of the ratio of foreign-owned to domestically owned wealth. To estimate this equilibrium condition, the authors use a newly constructed data set of foreign asset and liability stocks for a large group of industrial and developing countries, from the 1960s to the present. They also develop summary measures of country returns and risks. Their econometric methodology is an application of the Pooled Mean Group estimator recently developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999), which allows for unrestricted cross-country heterogeneity in short-term dynamics while imposing a common long-run specification. The estimation results lend considerable support to the model, especially when applied to countries with low capital controls or high or upper-middle income. The results for countries with high capital controls and, especially, lower-income countries are less supportive of the stock equilibrium model. As a by-product of the model's estimation, the authors obtain estimates of the long-run equilibrium ratios of net foreign assets to wealth, conditional on the observed values of the country's relative returns, risks, and wealth. Then, for a selected group of industrial and developing countries, they evaluate the extent to which actual ratios diverge from their long-run counterparts - and hence the sustainability of current net foreign asset positions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2281.

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Date of creation: 31 Jan 2000
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2281

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Environmental Economics&Policies; Environmental Economics&Policies; Banks&Banking Reform; Macroeconomic Management; Economic Theory&Research; International Terrorism&Counterterrorism;

References

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  1. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," ESE Discussion Papers 44, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  2. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Donald Robertson & James Symons, 1991. "Some Strange Properties of Panel Data Estimators," CEP Discussion Papers dp0044, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  4. Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  5. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-91, January.
  6. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 1998. "Capital flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting, and Volatility," Working Papers 98.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  7. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1991. "Fiscal deficits, public debt, and government solvency: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 354-380, December.
  8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  9. Dixit, Avinash K. & Pindyck, Robert S. & Sødal, Sigbjørn., 1997. "A markup interpretation of optimal rules for irreversible investment," Working papers WP 3945-97., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  10. Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén, 2001. "Country portfolios," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 91, Central Bank of Chile.
  11. Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Easterly, William & Kraay, Aart, 1999. "Small states, small problems?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2139, The World Bank.
  13. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  14. Razin, A., 1993. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," Papers 2-93, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  15. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June.
  16. Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  17. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 5791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Smith, Constance E., 2011. "External balance adjustment: An intra-national and international comparison," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1195-1213, October.
  2. Camelia Minoiu & Patrick A. Imam, 2008. "Mauritius," IMF Working Papers 08/212, International Monetary Fund.
  3. César A. Calderón, 2002. "Real Exchange Rates in the Long and Short Run: A Panel Co-Integration Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 153, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Verdier, Genevieve, 2008. "What drives long-term capital flows A theoretical and empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 120-142, January.

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