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Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt and Government Solvency: Evidence from OECD Countries

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Author Info
Giancarlo Corsetti
Nouriel Roubini

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Abstract

This paper discusses different empirical tests of public sector solvency and applies them to a sample of 18 OCED countries. Provided that the government solvency constraint need to be imposed, these tests develop from the idea of verifying whether the intertemporal budget constraint of the public sector would be satisfied a) had the fiscal and financial policy in the sample been pursued indefinitely and b) were the relevant macro and structural features of the economy stable over time. If solvency is not supported by the empirical evidence, a change either in the policy or in the relevant macro and structural variables (growth, inflation, interest rates, demographic factors) must occur at some point in the future. Among the G-7 countries, public sector solvency seems a serious issue in Italy, while does not appear to be a problem in the cases of Germany and Japan. The evidence for the U.S.A. is mixed. Problems of sustainability of the current path of fiscal policies are also present in Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and Greece.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3658.

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Date of creation: Mar 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3658

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  1. Alberto Bagnai, 2004. "Keynesian And Neoclassical Fiscal Sustainability Indicators, With Applications To Emu Member Countries," Public Economics 0411005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Iwamoto, Yasushi, 2005. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy to Escape from a Deflationary Trap," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(1), pages 1-46, February. [Downloadable!]
  3. Issouf Samake & Evan Tanner, 2007. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Working Papers 06/295, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Alain Paquet, 1998. "Prudence fiscale, indicateurs d'endettement et évolution de l'état des finances des administrations publiques au Canada," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 59, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
  5. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 5791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Calderon, Cesar & Loayza, Norman & Serven, Luis, 2000. "External sustainability : a stock equilibrium perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2281, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. César Calderón & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén, 2001. "International Portfolio Diversification: The Role of Risk and Return," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 94, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michael G. Arghyrou & Kul B Luintel, 2002. "Government Solvency: Revisiting some EMU Countries," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-24, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Michael G. Arghyrou, 2004. "Debt Sustainability, Structural Breaks and Non-linear Fiscal Adjustment: A Testing Application to Greek Fiscal Policy," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 04-01, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. John Considine & Liam A. Gallagher, 2004. "UK Debt Sustainability: Some Nonlinear Evidence and Theoretical Implications," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 59, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Cuddington, John T., 1997. "Analyzing the sustainability of fiscal deficitsin developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1784, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2009. "Common fluctuations in OECD budget balances," Working Papers 2009-055, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  13. Michel Aglietta & Merih Uctum, 1995. "Fiscal consolidation in Europe," Research Paper 9519, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2006. "Sustainability Of Fiscal Deficits: The U.S. Experience 1929-2004," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 05xx, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  15. Peter Claeys, 2007. "Sustainability of EU fiscal policies, a panel test," IREA Working Papers 200702, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  16. John T. Cuddington, 1997. "Analysing the Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits in Developing Countries," International Finance 9706001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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