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Forecasting with Panel Data

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This paper gives a brief survey of forecastiang with panel data. Starting with a simple error component regression model and surveying best linear unbiased prediction under various assumptions of the disturbance term. This includes various ARMA models as well as spatial autoregressive models. The paper also surveys how these forecasts have been used in panel data applications, running horse races between heterogeneous and homogeneous panel data models using out of sample forecasts.

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Paper provided by Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University in its series Center for Policy Research Working Papers with number 91.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:91

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Keywords: forecasting; BLUP; panel data; spatial dependence; serial correlation; heterogeneous panels.;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Herwartz, Helmut & Golosnoy, Vasyl, 2007. "Semiparametric Approaches to the Prediction of Conditional Correlation Matrices in Finance," Economics Working Papers 2007,23, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  2. Galvao Jr., Antonio F., 2011. "Quantile regression for dynamic panel data with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 142-157, September.
  3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2006. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," PGDA Working Papers 2006, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  4. Schanne, Norbert & Wapler, Rüdiger & Weyh, Antje, 2008. "Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," IAB Discussion Paper 200828, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  5. Christoph Jeßberger, 2011. "Multilateral Environmental Agreements up to 2050: Are They Sustainable Enough?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 98, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  6. Baltagi, Badi H. & Liu, Long, 2013. "Estimation and prediction in the random effects model with AR(p) remainder disturbances," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 100-107.
  7. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Moura, Guilherme V., 2013. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 493-509.
  8. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Pirotte, Alain, 2009. "Forecasting with Spatial Panel Data," IZA Discussion Papers 4242, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Das, Debasish Kumar, 2012. "Determinants of current account imbalances in the global economy: A dynamic panel analysis," MPRA Paper 42419, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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