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Prediction in the Panel Data Model with Spatial Correlation: The Case of Liquor

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Author Info
Badi H. Baltagi () (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244-1020)
Dong Li

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Abstract

This paper considers the problem of prediction in a panel data regression model with spatial autocorrelation in the context of a simple demand equation for liquor. This is based on a panel of 43 states over the period 1965-1994. The spatial autocorrelation due to neighboring states and the individual heterogeneity across states is taken explicitly into account. We compare the performance of several predictors of the states demand for liquor for one year and five years ahead. The estimators whose predictions are compared include OLS, fixed effects ignoring spatial correlation, fixed effects with spatial correlation, random effects GLS estimator ignoring spatial correlation and random effects estimator accounting for the spatial correlation. Based on RMSE forecast performance, estimators that take into account spatial correlation and neterogeneity across the states perform the best for one year ahead forecasts. However, for two to five years ahead forecasts, estimators that take into account the heterogeneity across the states yield the best forecasts.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University in its series Center for Policy Research Working Papers with number 84.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:max:cprwps:84

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Related research
Keywords: prediction; spatial correlation; panel data; liquor demand;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Baltagi, Badi H & Griffin, James M, 1995. "A Dynamic Demand Model for Liquor: The Case for Pooling," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 545-54, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1971. "The Estimation of the Variances in a Variance-Components Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Wansbeek, Tom & Kapteyn, Arie, 1983. "A note on spectral decomposition and maximum likelihood estimation in models with balanced data," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 213-215, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 239-53, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Moulton, Brent R., 1986. "Random group effects and the precision of regression estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 385-397, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Baillie, R.T. & Baltagi, B.H., 1994. "Prediction from the Regression Model with one-way Error Components," Papers 9405, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  8. Hausman, Jerry A, 1978. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1251-71, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  10. Taub, Allan J., 1979. "Prediction in the context of the variance-components model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 103-107, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Badi H. Baltagi & Seuck Heun Song & Won Koh, 2002. "Testing Panel Data Regression Models with Spatial Error Correlation," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B6-4, International Conferences on Panel Data. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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