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Forecasting with Spatial Panel Data

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Author Info
Baltagi, Badi H. () (Syracuse University)
Bresson, Georges () (University of Paris 2)
Pirotte, Alain () (University of Paris 2)

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Abstract

This paper compares various forecasts using panel data with spatial error correlation. The true data generating process is assumed to be a simple error component regression model with spatial remainder disturbances of the autoregressive or moving average type. The best linear unbiased predictor is compared with other forecasts ignoring spatial correlation, or ignoring heterogeneity due to the individual effects, using Monte Carlo experiments. In addition, we check the performance of these forecasts under misspecification of the spatial error process, various spatial weight matrices, and heterogeneous rather than homogeneous panel data models.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 4242.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4242

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Related research
Keywords: forecasting; BLUP; panel data; spatial dependence; heterogeneity;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kelejian, Harry H & Prucha, Ingmar R, 1999. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 509-33, May.
  2. Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Georges Bresson & Badi H. Baltagi & Alain Pirotte, 2007. "Panel unit root tests and spatial dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 339-360. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2004. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 867-895, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Kapoor, Mudit & Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2007. "Panel data models with spatially correlated error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 97-130, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Frees, Edward W. & Miller, Thomas W., 2004. "Sales forecasting using longitudinal data models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 99-114. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Pirotte, Alain, 2002. "Comparison of forecast performance for homogeneous, heterogeneous and shrinkage estimators: Some empirical evidence from US electricity and natural-gas consumption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 375-382, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hoogstrate, Andre J & Palm, Franz C & Pfann, Gerard A, 2000. "Pooling in Dynamic Panel-Data Models: An Application to Forecasting GDP Growth Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 274-83, July.
  10. Anselin, Luc & Moreno, Rosina, 2003. "Properties of tests for spatial error components," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 595-618, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Taub, Allan J., 1979. "Prediction in the context of the variance-components model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 103-107, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-23.

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