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World Carbon Dioxide Emissions: 1950-2050

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Author Info
Richard Schmalensee
Thomas M. Stoker
Ruth A. Judson

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Abstract

Emissions of carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels, which may contribute to long-term climate change, are projected through 2050 using reduced-form models estimated with national-level panel data for the period of 1950-1990. Using the same set of income and population growth assumptions as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we find that the IPCC's widely used emissions growth projections exhibit significant and substantial departures from the implications of historical experience. Our model employs a flexible form for income effects, along with fixed time and country effects, and we handle forecast uncertainty explicitly. We find clear evidence of an "inverse U" relation with a within-sample peak between carbon dioxide emissions (and energy use) per capita and per-capita income. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 80 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 15-27
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:80:y:1998:i:1:p:15-27

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  1. Bagliani Marco & Bravo Giancarlo & Dalmazzone Silvana & Giaccaria Sergio & Golia Silvia, 2008. "Economic growth and environmental pressure: a worldwide panel analysis," Department of Economics Working Papers 200812, University of Turin. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nicole Grunewald & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2009. "Driving Factors of Carbon Dioxide Emissions and the Impact from Kyoto Protocol," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Aslanidis Nektarios, 2009. "Environmental Kuznets curves for carbon emissions: A critical survey," wp.comunite 0051, Department of Communication, University of Teramo. [Downloadable!]
  4. AZOMAHOU, ThŽophile & VAN PHU, Nguyen, 2001. "Economic growth and CO2 emissions: a nonparametric approach," CORE Discussion Papers 2001012, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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