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On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?

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Author Info
Herbert Brücker () (DIW Berlin and IZA Bonn)
Boriss Siliverstovs (DIW Berlin)

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Abstract

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967-2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects estimators clearly outperforms the pooled OLS estimator, (ii) both the fixed effects estimators and the hierarchical Bayes estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (iii) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1710.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1710

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Related research
Keywords: international migration; panel data; forecasting;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  3. Burda,M.C., 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," Papers 597, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    Other versions:
  4. Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson & Alain Pirotte, 2004. "Tobin q: Forecast performance for hierarchical Bayes, shrinkage, heterogeneous and homogeneous panel data estimators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 107-113, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1997. "Pooled estimators vs. their heterogeneous counterparts in the context of dynamic demand for gasoline," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 303-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Badi H. Baltagi & James M. Griffin & Weiwen Xiong, 2000. "To Pool Or Not To Pool: Homogeneous Versus Hetergeneous Estimations Applied to Cigarette Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 117-126, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  14. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Pirotte, Alain, 2002. "Comparison of forecast performance for homogeneous, heterogeneous and shrinkage estimators: Some empirical evidence from US electricity and natural-gas consumption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 375-382, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Thomas Bauer & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 1999. "Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  19. Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Migration, Co-ordination Failures and EU Enlargement: Paper Presented at the 41st Economic Policy Panel in Luxembourg, 15/16 April 2005," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 481, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Migration, Co-ordination Failures and EU Enlargement," IZA Discussion Papers 1600, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  3. de Arce, Rafael & Mahia, Ramon, 2008. "Determinants of Bilateral Immigration Flows Between The European Union and some Mediterranean Partner Countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey," MPRA Paper 14547, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Neil Howe & Richard Jackson, 2004. "Projecting Immigration: A Survey of the Current State of Practice and Theory," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-32, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2008. "Macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion : a CGE simulation for Germany and the UK," IAB Discussion Paper 200803, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]. [Downloadable!]
  6. Maroula Khraiche, 2009. "Trade, Firm Structure, and Migration of Talent," Working papers 2009-35, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alan Ahearne & Herbert Brücker & Zsolt Darvas & Jakob von Weizsäcker, 2009. "Cyclical dimensions of labour mobility after EU enlargement," Working Papers 0902, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest, revised 25 May 2009. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Pirotte, Alain, 2009. "Forecasting with Spatial Panel Data," IZA Discussion Papers 4242, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  9. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2007. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 664, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Badi H. Baltagi, 2007. "Forecasting with Panel Data," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 91, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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