Migration and the Option Value of Waiting
AbstractMigration is an investment: it involves fixed, unrecoverable costs and uncertain future returns. If migration can be postponed, the option value of doing so may have positive value. Migration may not occur for a range of individuals who would otherwise migrate on a net present value basis. This paper models the migration decision using ideas developed by Pindyck (1991) and Dixit (1992). The option value of waiting is related to the interest rate, fixed costs, and especially uncertainty governing the evolution of income at home and abroad. The `bad news principle' predicts that only unfavourable states of the world will affect the value of the migration option. In a rational intertemporal equilibrium of two regional labour markets, low migration rates may coexist with large or even increasing current wage differentials.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stockholm - International Economic Studies in its series Papers with number 597.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 1995
Date of revision:
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Postal: UNIVERSITY OF STOCKHOLM, INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES, S- 106 91 STOCKHOLM SWEDEN.
Web page: http://www.iies.su.se/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Burda, Michael C, 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- M. C. Burda, 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,58, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
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